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Folding a set on the turn

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Gianzzurri99
Joined: 13.02.2019

Hand from Ignition 10NL, 6max

Don't like folding in these spots but in this specific case I thought it was justified.
1 - Opponent had been very tight
2 - Fairly passive post flop
3 - This board is terrible

Do you all think this is a fold or just a close your eyes and call spot - hoping your opponent overvalues AK?

After checking the site later, the opponent had A♣:J♦: :pcuser:
Is this still a fold against how we would expect this type of player to play? When opponent shoves here I expect them to have AA, KK, TT, is this reasonable?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.10(BB)
BB ($10.07) [VPIP: 52% | PFR: 4% | AGG: 21.7% | Flop Agg: 19.2% | Turn Agg: 15.8% | 3-Bet: 4.2% | Fold to 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 50]
HJ ($12.69) [VPIP: 54.3% | PFR: 25.7% | AGG: 40.9% | Hands: 35]
HERO ($24.26) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 17% | AGG: 29.6% | Flop Agg: 31.2% | Turn Agg: 31.1% | 3-Bet: 8.8% | 4-Bet: 12.9% | Hands: 51556]
BTN ($12.70) [VPIP: 37% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 19% | Hands: 27]
SB ($7.90) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 7]

Dealt to Hero: Q♠ Q♥

HJ Calls $0.10, HERO Raises To $0.50, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Raises To $0.90, HJ Folds, HERO Calls $0.40

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.7 effective]
Flop ($1.95): K♦ J♠ Q♣
BB Bets $0.50 (Rem. Stack: $8.67), HERO Raises To $1.50 (Rem. Stack: $21.86), BB Calls $1 (Rem. Stack: $7.67)

Turn ($4.95): K♦ J♠ Q♣ A♦
BB Bets $7.67 (allin), HERO Folds

Spoiler

BB wins: $4.71


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3 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Seems well played. Run out is bad for a set with a decent change he has a straight.
I doubt a passive villain will over play a set or 2 pair like this to often.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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checkdex
Joined: 17.10.2013

VPIP 54 and minraise 3bet i never fold here ..


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you say this board is terrible why? You have a set and you think that this aggro player always has the nuts... maybe he does as it is definately in his range but i think you need to consider that you beat him alot. He raises .40 for value with hands like TT+, ATs+, AJo+ and 3 betting as a bluff with a range of say 32s to 85s and maybe A3o to A5o and calling all better hands. But probably wider.
He bet calls the flop so now what do you have him on? Why do you expect him to have TT+ on the river just because he stacked off when I'm guessing you didn't have him on that on that turn.
Ask yourself is he getting max value by shoving that river knowing he doesn't have the nuts and the way you played it you could have the nuts and you are never folding.
If you lose it's a cooler sorry I'm not folding vs this player.


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