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$10 spin. 99. Missed value with set?

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savage1981
Joined: 31.05.2010

The villain's a rec. How much would you bet on the river given the stack sizes? Like 2-2.5BB seems good?

PokerStars - 30/60 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 9.42 BB
Hero (SB): 15.58 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♥ 9♣

Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB checks

Flop: (2 BB, 2 players) T♥ Q♠ 2♥
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (2 BB, 2 players) 9♦
BB bets 1 BB, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

River: (8 BB, 2 players) J♠
BB checks, Hero checks

Spoiler

BB shows 3♠ Q♦ (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 28%, Flop 84%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows 9♥ 9♣ (Three of a Kind, Nines)
(Pre 72%, Flop 16%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 8 BB


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5 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Pre-flop seems like a easy push for 9bb effective or you expect he will fire back a lot if you limp here.
Thin value bet on river seems fine. It will be a shove most of the time with in mind he has only 5bb behind.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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checkdex
Joined: 17.10.2013

I think limping this hand is mistake. Losing value . Limping QQ+


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Pakichu777
Joined: 14.06.2011

limping is standard, 99 is def strong enough to limp trap here

2BB on the river seems fine, there is still quite a bit of Qx in his range - however considering the small turn probe size, it is a bit more likely that he has some form of draw on the turn - for that reason a check isnt terrible (as it was a pretty thin bet to begin with)


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Axif1
Joined: 19.11.2011

Agree with limping pre. I think, that it goes like this: limp > minraise > jam. Because our edge comes mainly from postflop spots.

Maybe you can even get creative and minbet the river here. He is definitely going to call most of his better pairs, 2p as well. Problem is, that it might induce some villains. But I still think, that EV of betting small is better than EV of checking. (obv might be wrong)


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

If villain is really passive I would minraise or shove pre but as default limping to balance limp range. 22-66 would personally always shove and 77-88 are fine either way.

If betting river I would just shove most likely with 5.4bb remaining. If betting smaller you want to think if you fold or call versus shove. Problem is absurdly good pot odds but lot of time it will be straight if shove comes.


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