AQo - 3bet pot - TPTK in position

Originally posted by monteCarlol
OTF I check behind because it is not a dangerous flop. I have a pretty robust equity. Only possible draws: T9s, KTs.

IMO this is a mandatory CBet.
Yeah your equity is good now, but you'll never make any more money unless you bet.
A ton of weaker hands can call here -- underpairs, AK, AT and AJ especially

Besides that, not CBetting, gives the initiative to SB, who promptly takes advantage of it.
As played I think a river call is close. <== Hopefully real No-Limit Hold'em players will correct me.
OTOH this is NL 2 so players don't necessarily play position properly...

Assuming we have SB's range more-or-less correct, here is what Equilab says about this position:

Board: J♣2♠Q♦ 9♣ 9♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    68.75%  66.07%   2.68% { AsQh }
SB     31.25%  28.57%   2.68% { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KTo+ }

@Vorpal: Hero can't cbet because he was not the last raiser preflop. Also I find your range really peculiar. Why would villain shove 77? TT? KJ? AJo? I think it's more likely that villain shows up with quads rather than Jx for instance, even though quads is only 1 combo.

I don't see this line taken as a bluff often so I fold. This PSB turn looks like villain has a very strong hand and is concerned about the fact that he has only 2 streets to put all the money in. If villain is a genius and does that with AK so that we fold Jx/QT type of hands then congrats to him, but overall, readless and only with a population read I fold. I also bet the flop.

OTF I check behind because it is not a dangerous flop. I have a pretty robust equity. Only possible draws: T9s, KTs.

Imo the reasons for betting outweigh the reasons for checking in this case. Imagine that you raise 22 OTB, and it comes A72r vs BB, the flop is not dangerous and you have robust equity with the only draw being 54s, do you check behind? Probably not, so as you can see, while these are good reasons to check in some cases, these are not sufficient reasons to check and you must evaluate the other option which is to bet. In this case, it's easier to get value now from AK/AT/JT/KJ/AJ type of hands than if you wait, and also on such runout you take easily 2 streets vs QT/JT, maybe 3 streets of value on good runouts vs QTs/KQ etc.

Originally posted by Swish29
@Vorpal: Hero can't cbet because he was not the last raiser preflop. Also I find your range really peculiar. Why would villain shove 77? TT? KJ? AJo? I think it's more likely that villain shows up with quads rather than Jx for instance, even though quads is only 1 combo.

Quite correct.
However when the 3Better checks, it opens the door for Hero -- not technically a CBet, but a bet nonetheless.
We do agree that betting > checking OTF though.

The peculiar range is just the possible hands mentioned, plus a few others that opponent may have 3Bet with -- but I didn't remove anything on later streets.
It wasn't meant as the definitive assessment of SB's range, just an example of possibilities

I do agree that the river is a fold.

Why not create what you consider a more realistic range and throw it into Equilab?

default on this flop: likely bet/bet/bet if the runout blanks. for this runout, probably bet/fold turn and check river.
AK should also be mentioned for villain...

as played: the turn bet is polarizing, don't raise it with a bluffcatcher. river jam is pretty sick, villain is repping
- flop slowplays (KK+, sets)
- hands that are improved by the 9 (99, KT, T8, J9, Q9)

missed hands are AK, AT, clubs, whatever. do you believe him?
i think it's a close leveling spot, and when it's close i like to call, his story doesn't make that much sense and the read can be valuable. however, this isn't actually that high in our range as the 9 also improves some of our check-behinds, so don't feel too commited.

Originally posted by Swish29
Imo the reasons for betting outweigh the reasons for checking in this case. Imagine that you raise 22 OTB, and it comes A72r vs BB, the flop is not dangerous and you have robust equity with the only draw being 54s, do you check behind? Probably not, so as you can see, while these are good reasons to check in some cases, these are not sufficient reasons to check and you must evaluate the other option which is to bet. In this case, it's easier to get value now from AK/AT/JT/KJ/AJ type of hands than if you wait, and also on such runout you take easily 2 streets vs QT/JT, maybe 3 streets of value on good runouts vs QTs/KQ etc.

In the 22 on A72r example (equity is much higher, I would assume) I bet for value and because I cbet with almost my complete range.
AQo (no initiative) in 3bet pot on QJ2r it's a bit different. There are a lot of hands in my range that I would happily check behind with like TT-88, AK, AJs, ATs, KJs, JTs
That is why I thought it is a good idea to also check my strong made hand. But maybe it is a good idea to bet with more of my weaker hands in this case, too, which would make the bet with AQ mandatory, I guess?
On a drawy texture things change, I would be more inclined to bet.
However, I acknowledge the it should be better to bet OTF primarily because we think we are ahead and want to make the pot bigger in case we win.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Why not create what you consider a more realistic range and throw it into Equilab?

Hmm well because I would only prove what I wrote, but what I wrote could be wrong ♦

Originally posted by monteCarlol
AQo (no initiative) in 3bet pot on QJ2r it's a bit different. There are a lot of hands in my range that I would happily check behind with like TT-88, AK, AJs, ATs, KJs, JTs

You could still check behind QTs/Q9s/KQ - sure there are hands that you would like to check, but if you only bet with hands better than AQ or worse than 88 you'll end up betting with mostly air