Nut flush fold?

Joined: 19.08.2012

18.10.2020, 10:48 0

Hello all,

I would like to know how you would've handled the raise on the river. His 3b was a bit fishy so I thought that the chance of him holding jacks was pretty slim.

Is this an easy bluff spot for villain? Would you consider calling this raise a leak?

My true feeling told me to not call this raise but somehow I never follow my poker feelings.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 261.6 BB
SB: 102.6 BB
BB: 82.8 BB
Hero (UTG): 267.6 BB
MP: 105.6 BB
CO: 188.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♣ Q♥

Hero raises to 2.4 BB, MP raises to 3.8 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2.8 BB, Hero calls 1.4 BB

Flop: (11.8 BB, 3 players) J♣ 8♣ 3♥
BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: (11.8 BB, 3 players) 4♣
BB bets 8.6 BB, Hero calls 8.6 BB, MP calls 8.6 BB

River: (37.6 BB, 3 players) 3♣
BB checks, Hero bets 23 BB, MP raises to 84.6 BB, fold

Spoiler

Hero calls 61.6 BB

MP shows 4♥ 4♦ (Full House, Fours full of Threes)
(Pre 54%, Flop 68%, Turn 82%)
Hero mucks A♣ Q♥ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 46%, Flop 32%, Turn 18%)
MP wins 198.2 BB

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4 replies

ghaleon

Joined: 17.10.2007

Posts: 11,325

18.10.2020, 11:59 +1

Bit tough to give credit for full house when villain check fairly drawy flop in position 3way. But nasty spot anyway as I doubt we are often getting bluffed either. Villain is fish from preflop 3bet size so could he overvalue K high flush?

I would likely call because of flop check and villain preflop 3bet size. Increase chance that villain does some random stuff imo.

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VorpalF2F

Super Moderator

Joined: 02.09.2010

Posts: 45,056

18.10.2020, 17:50 0

I'll call -- I hope.
Checking a set OTF would be strange behaviour multi-way, esp at NL 5

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nutural

Joined: 21.09.2011

Posts: 183

21.10.2020, 20:11 0

i have recently decided to not call such river bets if the hand was quite "quiet" so far.
And unless I see a spike in villains river aggression on my HUD or have caught him bluffing river multiple times, I'm training myself :f_mad: not to call them. Maybe wrong :f_ugly:

Even though, Pot odds-wise it cannot be a huge mistake to call it long term. :f_drink:

In essence I have to find a reason to call vs previously that I had to find a reason to fold

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DecMate

Joined: 25.01.2009

Posts: 1,868

22.10.2020, 22:17 0

Originally posted by ghaleon
Bit tough to give credit for full house when villain check fairly drawy flop in position 3way. But nasty spot anyway as I doubt we are often getting bluffed either. Villain is fish from preflop 3bet size so could he overvalue K high flush?

I would likely call because of flop check and villain preflop 3bet size. Increase chance that villain does some random stuff imo.

I agree, min 3b means fish unless a misclick. I doubt he's ever checking 88 or JJ.
It is sick,.. maybe we should throw logic out and herp derp fold it. It's just never a bluff is it 🤷‍♀️

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