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Top pair and FD on the turn

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Furlisht
Joined: 09.09.2007

Hi,

How do you interpret this kind of hand from unknown villain?

Preflop could have been 5bb with UTG and SB limping.
OTF I decide to cbet 33%, I want them to call with a lot of stuff "for cheap" and see a turn. Is this a good way to think about it? I'm bad at betsizing.
OTT, i bet 60% for value here, and vilain just jams. What do you make of it? I decide to call, having the TPTK and nut FD.

Playing with equilab, if he shoves any set, any two pairs and some good Q, i'm ahead

MP2 59.65% 53.19% 6.46% AsQs
MP3 40.35% 33.88% 6.46% 99, 33-22, AQs, KQs, QTs-Q9s, AQo, KQo, QTo-Q9o

But do you think he would jam that large?

How do you play this kind of hand in a NL5 Zoom pool?

Thanks

PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 154.4 BB
SB: 143.2 BB
Hero (BB): 153.6 BB
UTG: 139.8 BB
MP: 185.8 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♠ A♠

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 0.6 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, UTG calls 3 BB, SB calls 3 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 3 players) 3♠ 9♠ 2♣
SB checks, Hero bets 3.8 BB, UTG calls 3.8 BB, fold

Turn: (19.6 BB, 2 players) Q♦
Hero bets 11.2 BB, UTG raises to 132 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 120.8 BB

River: (283.6 BB, 2 players) 2♥

Spoiler

UTG cashed out 220 BB for a fee of 2.2 BB

Hero shows Q♠ A♠ (Two Pair, Queens and Twos)
(Pre 34%, Flop 47%, Turn 18%)
UTG shows Q♥ Q♣ (Full House, Queens full of Twos)
(Pre 66%, Flop 53%, Turn 82%)


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5 replies
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

You left QQ and QJ out of your range, but I don't think it matters...
I doubt he holds Q2 or Q3


Board: 3♠9♠2♣ Q♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    66.15%  61.17%   4.97% { AsQs }
MP3    33.85%  28.88%   4.97% { QQ, 99, 33-22, AQs, KQs, Q8s+, AQo, KQo, Q9o+ }

Mathematically then, it is a call, but in zoom I don't know...
I tend to get suspicious of these large raises at low stakes.


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It's played ok but i think the better line might be to check call the turn and check call the river unimproved and if villain checks the turn we can value bet river.


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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

I think line is correct. Villian limps the pot so we can probably assume he's a fish and we're never that much of an underdog with our hand. Unfortunate he shows QQ. It's close.
I think I'd just lead the turn too. Villian looks weak an we want value, AQ can go for 3 streets plus we got the nut draw.


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onetimebigtime
Joined: 06.05.2020

yes with the nut flush we are going broke, baby happy new year


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Possibly might even be a fold how often are an A or Q an out ?


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