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78s Flop ship it?

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Realgeist
Joined: 21.10.2008

Villain: unknown

I'm very interested how the community sees this play. I'm ahead against TT+ and I also want to protect against Ahx combinations.
I need an equity of 37% which I should easily have with this range.

Villains range:

MP2 44.60% 42.64% 1.96% TT+, A6s, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, AhKs, AhQs, AhJs, AhTs
MP3 55.40% 53.44% 1.96% 8d7d

BTN: 126 BB
SB: 108.5 BB
Hero (BB): 116 BB
UTG: 104.5 BB
MP: 160.5 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♦ 7♦

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 7♥ 8♥ 5♥
Hero checks, UTG bets 1.5 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, UTG raises to 24.5 BB, Hero raises to 113.5 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 77.5 BB and is all-in

Turn: (209.5 BB, 2 players) Q♣

River: (209.5 BB, 2 players) J♣

Spoiler

Hero shows 8♦ 7♦ (Two Pair, Eights and Sevens)
(Pre 39%, Flop 18%, Turn 9%)
UTG shows T♥ K♥ (Flush, King High)
(Pre 61%, Flop 82%, Turn 91%)
UTG wins 202 BB


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4 replies
Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

I see this in Equilab:

Board: 7♥8♥5♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    44.58%  42.62%   1.96% { TT+, A6s, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, AhKs, AhQs, AhJs, AhTs }
BB     55.42%  53.46%   1.96% { 8d7d }

So we're marginally ahead.

We bet:
:diamond:  To get better hands to fold
:diamond:  To get worse hands to call

I'm thinking that this x/r is a semi-bluff, but once opponent re-raises, we're down to 4 outs to a full house.
Against a 3x open from UTG, I would fold 87s pre, 2.5x gives you marginally better odds, but since I'm rather nitty, I think I'd still fold.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Villain is not saying he has overpair, two pair or set but that he has flush or maybe sometimes nut flush draw with flop 3bet. I think flop raise is somewhat reasonable versus small cbet though I would prefer just call. Mainly because this board can develop in many bad ways and I would not really want to bloat the pot especially out of position. When he 3bets we have easy fold. With set I would call and try to hit full house. Though even that is somewhat thin.

Folding preflop even with rake side would seem extremely nitty to me.


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Realgeist
Joined: 21.10.2008

Thanks for your feedback. :)


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It might not even be a board over pairs want to cbet that much but overpairs with heart want to call your raise and without are probably more likely to just fold this board.But depending on the stakes you cant really rule those hands out i mean villain is 3betting the flop with a flush which is pretty bad they should be calling your raise imo.So possibly your shove is ok but again depending a lot on player pool tendencies and villain tendencies and how they play those over pairs


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