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66 shove river overplayed?

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Realgeist
Joined: 21.10.2008

Villain unknown

Shove on the river overplayed? My idea was getting the money in against AK and AA. 78 should be too loose as UTG so only KK and 99 has me beat.

BTN: 62.5 BB
SB: 62 BB
BB: 102 BB
UTG: 317.5 BB
MP: 120 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6♣ 6♠

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) K♣ 6♥ 9♠
UTG bets 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB

Turn: (12.5 BB, 2 players) 2♥
UTG checks, Hero bets 4 BB, UTG raises to 14 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River: (40.5 BB, 2 players) 5♦
UTG bets 32.5 BB, Hero raises to 80.5 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 48 BB

Spoiler

Hero shows 6♣ 6♠ (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 20%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
UTG shows K♥ K♦ (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 80%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
UTG wins 194.5 BB


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3 replies
Zaratras
Joined: 03.01.2009

I put UTG on range (AA-55,AKs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AKo-AJo,KQo,QJo).
With makes you 90% equity on the flop, 92% on the turn, and 93% on the river.

I would betlarger on the flop. At least 50% potsize. Edit: Villain bets.. sorryIt is irritating that the villain plays his set passively here. The C/R on turn may be a sign that he has a strong hand. That would then mean that you would have been better off calling on the river with a possible straight draw. It should be in the villains range.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Villian is betting on the flop :f_wink:
Anyway I would bet the turn a little bit more like half pot, but after the check raise I would most likely go broke with a set. If villain has a better set it's just a cooler on NL2.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

you can consider raising Flop
you can consider betting larger on the Turn. don't think this is the sort of spot where people go crazy with huge XR bluffs vs 1/3 pot bets. you would be losing value vs most of his medium strength KX hands which will XC both a 1/3 and a 2/3 pot bet.

When he XR the Turn, I don't think people are playing KQ AK AA in this way that often. This means that he almost always has KK, maybe 99 for value, and some spews. I don't put too many K6/K9/96 type of hands in his range. He is UTG after all.

This means that while your hand is too strong to fold, you're unlikely to be beating his value range. and also his bet size seems very consistent with KK. 1/3 pot bet to sucker you in when he blocks everything. Then the turn check to induce from your straight draws and other floats, and going for the raise.

I'm willing to bet that people have KK here more than half the time, and the other half of the time he will have 99, bluffs and rarely AA/AK.

For that reason, im not raising the river.


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