At what point do you fold (or raise)

I think you played well, I think it was just one of those poor run-outs, maybe a small case you could have folded flop with the CO behind you still left to act after the check raise by SB? fold-pre too nitty imo lol

I agree.

I don't think you can fold with all the outs you have. OTF you have about 45% equity I believe. OTT it's about 30%, but I assume you have some implied odds.

If SB would flat, you could consider raising, but in this case he should have a reasonably strong hand that he is probably not going to fold.

Are you playing midstack strategy? Anyway fold pre with 72bb is out of question (even for midstack), even on utg1 A2s is open in many cases (with 100bb in stacks), but you have to play it aggressively. So, with so many outs CB flop.

I would probably be lead to believe, SB has a set, considering you have a 8 blocker. So most likely 7’s…. So that being said to lose 3 of your outs with the A, so you are down to to 9 outs and then you lose an out cause of 7 club if he is holding a set. That has 8 outs now, but the a 9 helps and give a str8 but one 9 is in your FD count, so you only have 3 9 outs. So about 11 outs IMO So your equity is about 44 % for two cards- and 22% equity just on the turn card… and 22% on river, depending if board pairs cause then you are probably dead money.

The question really comes down to the implied odds, if on the turn a club comes will you get paid off….. if you think you will a call it viable, if you think the villain will slow down then ehhhh….

Before the CO calls you are getting 4.25:1 on the call for turn after you get a call from the CO which you don’t know if he is doing the odds are good. With ~20% equity.

Think I would call flop and give up turn even with nut draw, cause I would be lead to believe the A isn’t helping…

The only thing I would change overall would be maybe your open sizing, I do t know your normal open, if it is 2.5bb you already have dead money in pot with 1 bb by CO. So being UTG I think I prefer to open, 4-4.5 bb open..

But in game as well against if I know villain or not, does make a difference

GL
KEEP GRINDING.

Originally posted by KoningAlbert
I agree.

I don't think you can fold with all the outs you have. OTF you have about 45% equity I believe. OTT it's about 30%, but I assume you have some implied odds.

If SB would flat, you could consider raising, but in this case he should have a reasonably strong hand that he is probably not going to fold.

Isn't part of the problem on the flop not knowing our equity because CO is still left to act? and we don't know if he's going to raise, push, call or fold? I put SB on range of:

77,66,76s,T7s

Top pair hands like JTs,QT,KTs, ATs

98s for a straight

and possibly some hands like K♣:J♣: , J♣:9♣:

what can we do when thinking about CO's actions still to come ?

Yes CO is an issue, if he goes all in you have an issue, the only thing you have going is you have the A club high draw.

If he goes all in you are still and SB goes all in, it is probably better for you actually. Because hero is covered by everyone, so then you are getting 3:1 on your money which is an easier call IMO…. Because you are drawing to a higher hand then what is nutted already on the board…

I am still in the camp that you are up against a set…. So paired boards is no bueno.

IMO.

Keep Grinding.

You have a really awkward stack size as well for a ring game. If you play MSS you start with around 40bb and stop if you have around 60bb. Normal i would play with at least 100bb with the BSS.

Pre-flop seems alright. On flop i would consider to Cbet with the nut flush draw. Even against 2 villains. Now you get in a really tricky spot. With 9 outs for a flush and 3 extra for a straight I wouldn't mind the call. off course you will get in a tough spot if the better will 3bet the flop. On turn you didn't impriove and with 12 outs of the 46 unknown cards you have to hit a straight or flush and that makes 26% equity. You need 26,8% and that makes it for me a fold. $27,89 to win $103,97. Also the implied oods are bad with in mind you have only 31,5bb more behind after you made the call.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Thanks for all the replies:

 Stack size: I have to set the auto-rebuy at each table, because if I don't I have to manually turn it off for some games -- and I play them more (NL 5-Card Draw primarily), and I didn't notice until 3rd hand. I need to watch this...
 Open raise: 2.9 is my standard, OTB 2.5 or 2 are also options. I failed to properly compensate for the dead money

Originally posted by SDK1987
You have a really awkward stack size as well for a ring game. If you play MSS you start with around 40bb and stop if you have around 60bb. Normal i would play with at least 100bb with the BSS.

Pre-flop seems alright. On flop i would consider to Cbet with the nut flush draw. Even against 2 villains. Now you get in a really tricky spot. With 9 outs for a flush and 3 extra for a straight I wouldn't mind the call. off course you will get in a tough spot if the better will 3bet the flop. On turn you didn't impriove and with 12 outs of the 46 unknown cards you have to hit a straight or flush and that makes 26% equity. You need 26,8% and that makes it for me a fold. $27,89 to win $103,97. Also the implied oods are bad with in mind you have only 31,5bb more behind after you made the call.

Cheers,
SDK1987

SDK
Curious what do you think SB has with this raise, A st8? Cause if you put him on a set, you lose outs and equity as you don’t want board to pair….because you lose the 7 of club and then on the turn card a 4 spade you lose the 4 club for river equity… if villain has set.

Why check the flop and call the reraise with the CO still left to act? What is your plan if the CO shoves?
I'd fold the turn. I know you double gutted now but...you not showing any aggression, your hand looks like a draw, if you turn your flush or river it will a set still pay you off? And if the river is a 7c or 4c then you in a spot.

I would have cbet this to keep initiative and my range strong in their eyes.

As played, I think I would have done the same, you had a monster project that if gets there you can stack him.