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98o from BTN, flop top pair

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Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $1.55 (78 bb)
MP: $1.35 (68 bb)
CO: $2.19 (110 bb)
BU (Hero): $2.15 (108 bb)
SB: $2.00 (100 bb)
BB: $5.12 (256 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with 8 9
3 players fold, Hero raises to $0.06, 1 fold, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.13) 6 9 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.06, BB calls $0.06

Turn: ($0.25) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.12, BB calls $0.12

River: ($0.49) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Villains BB calling range (picture 1)

Villains turn calling range? (picture 2)

What else do you think is folding in the 2nd picture (range above)?

are some of the 7x folding to my turn bet that have a middle pair+ over-card like; T7o,J7o,Q7o,K7o ? or how about the 8X (OESD) with over-card in their range like; T8o,J8o,Q8o,K8o?

And can we assume villain will be raising by the turn a large frequency with his best made hands? are we expecting players to be keeping in mind their relative hand strength compared to how wet the board is ;

- are they going to check-raise turn with their 2-pairs even though the board is wet OR

-are they going to check raise with mostly sets and straight?


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6 replies
monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019

Villain's range is very capped when he plays x/c OTF. FD, A7, 55, ... Stuff like that. Almost no one will slow play their sets on boards like this.
If you didn't have so much SD value I'd say overbet turn. With top pair a big bet is probably good. And OTR it might get too thin to bet again.

And another thing that comes to mind:

Why is 6 afraid of 7?
Because 7 8 9!


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by monteCarlol
Why is 6 afraid of 7?
Because 7 8 9!

Okay -- that got a chuckle out of me!

Problem with top pair here is that it is often dominated, but overall I think it is played well


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Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

Villain can potentially have us out kickered on flop and turnwith A9,K9,Q9,J9 and I think villain can have hands that improve on the turn 94, 44. I am wondering if the turn bets too thin and maybe we should check turn , when I bet turn and get called instead of check-raised by villain I feel much better, can we go for 3-streets here?

Does the Jack change much?

After looking back I guess we can feel a bit safer knowing we are blocking some of the straight outs with our 8 and blocking some two pair combos with our 9


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monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019

Better 9x is just a small part of Villain's range. And even those you can out draw easily, and you have nut potential.
Betting turn is good because you build the pot in case you hit, you protect vs a FD, and you might even get better 9x to fold.

If you do not improve on the river, you can check back, and you will still win many times.
Overbet turn is probably the way to go.


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Casey55
Joined: 19.07.2010

Originally posted by monteCarlol
Better 9x is just a small part of Villain's range. And even those you can out draw easily, and you have nut potential.
Betting turn is good because you build the pot in case you hit, you protect vs a FD, and you might even get better 9x to fold.

If you do not improve on the river, you can check back, and you will still win many times.
Overbet turn is probably the way to go.

I dont understand how overbet turn is an option, what hands that we beat are calling an overbet? It seems like we would be just pricing out draws and marginal pairs and having better hands continue against us. I dont love the idea of building pot in case we hit out outs it feels like we would be slightly turning hand into bluff or something. Interesting take. I would think villain would have to have something pretty good to call a polarized turn bet in this spot


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monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019

I can only say that in theory, overbets are good when you have a polarized uncapped range and Villain has a capped range.
This hand seems a good example of this. I tried to explain the reasons above.


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