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straight vs possible flush on the river

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Deine
Joined: 27.07.2019

Hello,

In that spot villain had VPIP/PFR: 40/10 with a passive/looser style.
We were playing at table 6 max. i was bb and he was mp.

So, he limped and everybody folds. I had A♦:J♦: so i raised to 3bb. He called

Flop came Q♣:K♣:7♥:

With the pot at 6,5b i bet 3,3 and he called

turn was a T♣: , so i bet half pot again. He called

river was a:8d: , i bet half pot again and villain raise almost 3 times my bet

so, i was thinking that he might have 2 pairs, like K8, KT, Q8, QT or a flush with A8s-A2s, K9s-K2s, Q9s-Q5s, J9s-J7s, T9s-T7s, 98s-97s, 87s

In cases like that the problem is that althouth i have an appropriate equity in theory ( in this particular game i had 66,7), In practice most of the times villain has a flush.

So i wonder if there are more factors have to consider besides risk/profit.
How you would you play this hand? what is your thought ?


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Seems well played to me against a passive villain. Tough to fold the river I think.
Villain could over play sets and maybe 2 pairs. Read less I can't fold.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

1. Raise bigger preflop - 4-5bb against limper, especially with good hand like AJs
2. You described villain as passive so I would make adjustments and just bet bigger when I hit. Then after his raise I have even easier decision to fold, and I'm maxing out value from his Kx or twopairs.


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Ramble
Joined: 17.11.2008

Everything EmiyaKiritsugu said.


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SamoB25
Joined: 02.10.2009

All good, the only thing I would change is to bet a bit more on turn, more like pot-dized or something. You have a good hand


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Preflop raise to 3bb would be reasonable if we were in position though I would still use bit bigger like 3.5-4bb preferably. Being out of position 4bb is absolute minimum.

Turn could be bit bigger but I would go with around 3/4 pot. If we go pot or bigger I think we might be forcing too many weaker hands to fold. With bigger turn bet I would not mind to go around half pot or bit over on river.

I dont think almost any opponent would raise river with two pairs when board offer both straight and flush possibilities and facing triple barrel? There is some worry about straights but that said both AJ and J9 seems bit unlikely considering preflop and flop calls. Though I am assuming AJ to open raise preflop. Players like these can definitely call flop with bare gutshot. As default I would be folding river as flush seems too likely. I doubt we are facing that much JcTx type hands going for river bluff in these games?


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