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KJo - BB vs SB

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monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019

Villain: VPIP 23/PFR 23/3Bet 21/Hands 45

While raising OTF is definitely a good option, I will only get value from a few Ax combos. So I tried to induce Villain to bluff, as their stats suggest a high aggression. Do you think this is a good idea?

Same OTT.

I planned to make a thin value raise on the river. But this runout kind of sucks.
MDF = 46%. My range OTR is too hard to define, but I think it is likely that KJ should be defended. KJ blocks some better value and beats the bottom of Villain's value range like e.g. AQ. So I guess I have to call.

What do you think of these decisions and the reasoning?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 123.4 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
CO: 124.7 BB
BTN: 173.9 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♣ J♠

fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) A♦ J♥ K♠
SB bets 1.4 BB, Hero calls 1.4 BB

Turn: (8.8 BB, 2 players) 5♥
SB bets 6.3 BB, Hero calls 6.3 BB

River: (21.4 BB, 2 players) 2♥
SB bets 24.5 BB, Hero calls 24.5 BB


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9 replies
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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Board gets wetter on every street, but I wouldn't mind your play here. Villains over bet on the river is suspicious, but tough to fold 2 pair against a aggressive villain.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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sandraardnas
Joined: 11.01.2012

What stat suggests agresion after 45 hands?


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monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019

VPIP : PFR Ratio + 3bet
Definitely not a passive player.


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sandraardnas
Joined: 11.01.2012

If I see correctly, sample on him is 45 (forty five) hands, right? You are aware that means he made one or two 3bets on this sample, arent you?


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monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019

The chances that they are aggressive are higher than the chances that they are passive.
The VPIP : PFR ratio is a good indicator even to some extent for a smaller sample size. Preflop aggression usually carries over to postflop.
Of course, there are exceptions and the confidence on this conclusion is pretty small given the small sample.
So no, I am not even close to 100% sure that this opponent is an aggressive postflop player, but if I had to make a guess, I would rather say they are than not. At least one can say, that nothing indicates that the player is a fish (in which case I would play this hand differently).
If I understand you correctly, you are trying to make a strong point to disregard the stats completely?
Then we are left with pool tendencies which are probably weighted towards passiveness which I should give more credit to, according to you?
Is that what you are saying, or do you have any other thoughts, regarding the player type or the hand in general?


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sandraardnas
Joined: 11.01.2012

The chances that they are aggressive are higher than the chances that they are passive.

No, he just might have had aces or made a standard bluff.

The VPIP : PFR ratio is a good indicator even to some extent for a smaller sample size

Yes

Preflop aggression usually carries over to postflop.

No

If I understand you correctly, you are trying to make a strong point to disregard the stats completely?

No, I only want to tell you that you make terrible mistake making assumptions based on extremely small sample size.

or do you have any other thoughts, regarding the player type or the hand in general?

First of all I think this spot is very rare (overbetting river like that) and you might probably fold to first action like that on this limit (although GTO wise you should call not only that but all 2 pairs and Axo with hearts). Better focus on more common spots and keep aware if situations such as this keeps reapiting against same oponents.


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sandraardnas
Joined: 11.01.2012

According to gto mage you have here break even/slightly losing call with 2 pair and Ax without hearts. Slightly winning call with Ax with hearts. And best blufcatcher (better than any Ax) is QhJx.
And there wasnt much difference beetween 3/4 bet or slight overbet.
But this is of course against gto player, so I guess this is a fold here with KJ.


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monteCarlol
Joined: 24.08.2019

@sandraardnas
Really appreciate your input! Thanks for that.
I still think that Villain is more likely a TAG than a fish. And yes, NL10 TAGs/Regs are not as aggressive as they should be.
Villain's rive overbet is very polar. I don't think they play this line with top pair.
So I only beat bluffs.
I acknowledge that I should have folded. Of course, I checked the hand with GTO Wizard.
I posted the hand because I did in fact successfully bluff catch (vs 98o) and during the hand I had a very strong gut feeling that Villain was bluffing. I know that intuition can be extremely off sometimes. That's why I posted the hand for a sanity check. Maybe I had some additional context that I cannot recall or correctly express right now. Of course, if one makes a feel play, it is impossible to justify this in a technical discussion.
Anyway, a lucky catch, and technically a -EV call.


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Imo tag looking villain is more likely going for multibarrel bluff than some 30/10 type. But of course sample is small. Any showdowns will tell often more about villain. Like if we had seen wild bluff like villain had here before we would likely always call this down. Villain 98o even if having heart seems pretty absurd combo. He is probably taking his range advantage thinking bit too far here.

On flop I would probably not raise anything because our range is wide defending versus SB and we also lack nutty combos like sets or AK. Some of the AJ, KJ or QT we can have. Though when villain use small cbet size it might be that we should raise sometimes. But triple barrel will be very effective if we raise too much from our strong hands.


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