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[NL 800] tough turn spot

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superkurac
Joined: 17.06.2020

Hi all,

so this is about a hand played at the lodge, KBM holding Q8o and Tarras holding T9s, it starts at 6:26:30, the YT title is "HIGH STAKES! $400/800 with Doug Polk, Nik Airball, Jungleman, Ben Lamb, KeyboardMonkey":

Spoiler

So obviously KBM seems to think that he's good on the turn (otherwise he wouldn't have called). The river (for all intents and purposes) is a brick and yet he check-folds to a half-pot-bet.

Before he made the call on turn, as I was watching, I thought "If you think you're good, you should shove". But then I thought "hmmm, no worse hand is ever calling that shove and (most likely) you're not getting Tarras (specifically) to fold AQ or better".

So then, maybe it is best to call if he thinks he's better. That way if he is indeed better he has a high chance of Tarras putting in the remainder of his stack, whereas if he shoves he risks that Tarras folds the worse hand. If the river is an A or a K and Tarras has AK so be it, he will probably have to call him off as those are also excellent cards to continue to bluff at IP after a check by KBM, if Tarras had a medium pocket pair or something like what he's actually holding.

I would really like to know the forum's thoughts on this hand.

Thank you


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Super Moderator
VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

For those not bothering to find it (starts at the correct time):

Spoiler

The end of the clip implies that Taras has a nitty reputation, and he makes good use of it here.
It also shows that you don't need to make a big bet to make a bluff work.


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EmiyaKiritsugu
Joined: 13.08.2013

I didnt watch a lot of The Lodge stream but I saw already Taras few times making ridiculously bad(from theory perspective) floats so:
-I wouldnt 4bet Q8s and go for more linear 4bet. I just dont expect Taras is guy who will let you autoprofit from 4bet bluffs and this is reason why we use trash Axs/Kxs and maybe Qxs to 4bet, not best playability but blocker matters.
-if KBM decided to 4bet then I think he has to go with this till end. If Taras is finding floats and bluffs there with T9 then what he will do with KT,KJ,AJ or JT? Probably bluff too, thats why small bet flop -> x/c turn -> x/c river is really great line. We get protection and all floats have big incentive to try to steal pot.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Interesting hand for sure. With basicly no live experience this line of both players looks really wild. Especially pre-flop I think and don't know the table dynamic to much. Live tells of the bluffer could be a indication of a bluff on the river, but tough to call with top pair weak kicker.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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