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Spins variance

 
General Poker Discussion
Last Post by SDK1987 3 years ago
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LeRoux90
LeRoux90
Joined: 24.08.2015
Posts: 3,754
16.07.2023, 02:42

I'm playing spins for a while and crushed the $3.00 at 70-75 cEV very easily. I went to the $5.00 and really had an hard time. I stopped for a long time. Then this year i started back. In over 2000 spins on the $5.00 (after beating the $3.00 again). I'm 65,000 chips under EV. Seems totally crazy to me. For 57k hands. I got obvious tilt from it and the run killing my confidence.

That's a bit of rent. I feel like the field doing a lot of trash but i can't beat it. How standard could be this run?

Spoiler


:spade:Le court terme n'est qu'une bataille, les badruns ne nous feront jamais perdre la guerre :spade:

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PokerSpass
PokerSpass
Joined: 05.02.2006
Posts: 1,829
16.07.2023, 08:41

In short-time the variance at spins can be very punishing :f_cry:
But my long-experience in Spins = Come Time - come Money :f_drink:

There is a good forfree app to simulate the varianc, SwongSim

HERE is download-link for SwongSim - EXE for Windows.

Maybe this YT-Video is helpful:


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SDK1987
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008
Posts: 43,840
16.07.2023, 13:55

Variance is huge in those games. It's not surprising if you play 100k games that you aren't killed the variance yet. The chance you win huge in 1 game is really low. Most of the time you get only 2 times you're buy-inn back if you win.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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LeRoux90
LeRoux90
Joined: 24.08.2015
Posts: 3,754
16.07.2023, 22:48

I understand variance is heavy in spins but in all honesty this is the first time in my whole poker life that it comes to my mind to ask myself if the field isn't rigged. Never seen that. Slowed down my table number today and played a 25 games. Went another 6,000 chips under EV in 600 hands... Another 10 BI down on a 105 cEV sample. I'm now like 72,000 chips under EV in 58k hands lmao. This is non-stop.


:spade:Le court terme n'est qu'une bataille, les badruns ne nous feront jamais perdre la guerre :spade:

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SDK1987
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008
Posts: 43,840
24.07.2023, 11:37

That's the problem. You can easy lose 1k buy-inns in those games as winning player. That makes it mentally a really hard game to play I think.


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