[Closed] FR 0.25/0.5 TT middle pair

Hi!

I would bet this flop(protection, and value against some hands).
Turn is thin,but check fold seems pretty weak to me.still many worse hands that can pay you off. K on the river is a good card for you( lesser chance that there is a K in the game) so I would still bet and fold to a raise,cause I dont see myself ahead here ever against these rock pasive guys.

Hello!

Because UTG1 and CO are calling stations their wide ranges give you good enought equity to bet out on flop with 2nd pair, even though we wouldn't usually do that. On the turn we can easily have another value unless we run into some resistance. River gets tricky however.

Now let's analyse BB's stats. He looks a bit tight preflop, but his VPIP/PFR ratio is standard. AF is a bit low and WTS is standard. And W$SD is of course way too high. You have to take into consideration that the sample size isn't all that big (can be card dead, he knows when to fold when he's beat and is lucky by not getting sucked out on the river and therefore his W$SD can easily be this high).

My opinion is that he is a pretty standard TAG, maybe a bit tight. Now you have to think about his actions and hand ranges. Since you only raised from SB he might be a bad TAG and won't realise that you raise into 2 limpers with a tighter range than you open raise and doesn't adjust BB defence - therefore he can have a pretty wide calling range here. So one option is that he has a K with a weak kicker, he decides that he is in a Wa/Wb situations and goes for a calldown. However river is a K which means that it is less likely for you to have a K and it gives him trips, so he decides to go for a raise.

The other possible line he could take is definetely a slowplayed (nut) flush. On the turn he thinks that it is better if he doesn't raise because he might get one of his oponnents to fold and there isn't a very high chance that he will get sucked out on the river. Therefore he delays his raise to river, gets one more bet out of you and actually gets both of his oponnents to call so his plan works out perfectly. UTG1 is not significally important as he will call down with any pair here.

Our final decision: We can easily fold the river and we shouldn't feel bad about doing it. His W$SD as I said isn't all that reliable, but it still means that he doesn't likely bluff (or at least get busted whilst bluffing).

Regards,

Primzi