[Closed] SH: .50/1.00 Set vs rivercard from hell.

Hello!

I actually like c/f the most. The pot is big but the chance that noone has a spade or a T (which gives a straight!) is just too small.

Regards,

Primzi

seriously, to me c/f is like blasphemy with a set.

Hello!

Well do the equity calculations according to villains' actions then ;). Every single draw that they'd call you down completes, your set isn't any good on the river anymore ;). You have to be able to give up good hands sometimes when you know you're beat. Beginner mistakes topic!

Regards,

Primzi

Heya Primzi!

I Dunno man, check calling would avoid the beginner mistake of folding a big pot for one bet.

Check Call vs Check Fold, going with check fold just seems insane to me! Second opinion maybe?

Hello!

Sure we can wait for a second opinion, there's nothing wrong with that. But so much flop action and a 3-way pot just makes it too little likely that we're ahead ;). Against one oponnent, I'll call. But sure, we can wait for someone else even though you probably didn't go calculate the equity ;). I mean, what are you beating here o.o?

Regards,

Primzi

Hello!

There we go, equity wise. You need 7% EQ to make a profitable call on the river. This is the most probable range that they'd play with till river. We only get 5,3% so it's a fold. It's really really rare that noone has you beat with 4 cards of same suit on the board alone, the straight draw just kills us.

Board: Js 9c 8s 7s 3s
Dead:

Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
Player 1: 5,292% 5,292% 0,000% 94,708% 7h7d
Player 2: 47,354% 46,796% 1,115% 52,089% JJ-77, 6s6h, 6s6d, 6s6c, 5s5h, 5s5d, 5s5c, 4s4h, 4s4d, 4s4c, 33, AsKs, AQs-A9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, K9s+, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, Q9s+, Qs8s, Qs7s, Qs6s, Qs5s, J7s+, T8s+, AsKh, AsKd, AsKc, AhKs, AdKs, AcKs, AQo-ATo, As9h, As9d, As9c, Ah9s, Ad9s, Ac9s, As8h, As8d, As8c, Ah8s, Ad8s, Ac8s, A7o, As6h, As6d, As6c, Ah6s, Ad6s, Ac6s, As5h, As5d, As5c, Ah5s, Ad5s, Ac5s, As4h, As4d, As4c, Ah4s, Ad4s, Ac4s, As3h, As3d, As3c, Ah3s, Ad3s, Ac3s, As2h, As2d, As2c, Ah2s, Ad2s, Ac2s, KTo+, Ks9h, Ks9d, Ks9c, Kh9s, Kd9s, Kc9s, Ks8h, Ks8d, Ks8c, Kh8s, Kd8s, Kc8s, K7o, Ks6h, Ks6d, Ks6c, Kh6s, Kd6s, Kc6s, Ks5h, Ks5d, Ks5c, Kh5s, Kd5s, Kc5s, QTo+, Qs9h, Qs9d, Qs9c, Qh9s, Qd9s, Qc9s, Qs8h, Qs8d, Qs8c, Qh8s, Qd8s, Qc8s, Qs7h, Qs7d, Qs7c, J9o+, Js8h, Js8d, Js8c, Ts9h, Ts9d, Ts9c, Th9s, Td9s, Tc9s
Player 3: 47,355% 46,797% 1,115% 52,088% JJ-77, 6s6h, 6s6d, 6s6c, 5s5h, 5s5d, 5s5c, 4s4h, 4s4d, 4s4c, 33, AsKs, AQs-A9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, K9s+, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, Q9s+, Qs8s, Qs7s, Qs6s, Qs5s, J7s+, T8s+, AsKh, AsKd, AsKc, AhKs, AdKs, AcKs, AQo-ATo, As9h, As9d, As9c, Ah9s, Ad9s, Ac9s, As8h, As8d, As8c, Ah8s, Ad8s, Ac8s, A7o, As6h, As6d, As6c, Ah6s, Ad6s, Ac6s, As5h, As5d, As5c, Ah5s, Ad5s, Ac5s, As4h, As4d, As4c, Ah4s, Ad4s, Ac4s, As3h, As3d, As3c, Ah3s, Ad3s, Ac3s, As2h, As2d, As2c, Ah2s, Ad2s, Ac2s, KTo+, Ks9h, Ks9d, Ks9c, Kh9s, Kd9s, Kc9s, Ks8h, Ks8d, Ks8c, Kh8s, Kd8s, Kc8s, K7o, Ks6h, Ks6d, Ks6c, Kh6s, Kd6s, Kc6s, Ks5h, Ks5d, Ks5c, Kh5s, Kd5s, Kc5s, QTo+, Qs9h, Qs9d, Qs9c, Qh9s, Qd9s, Qc9s, Qs8h, Qs8d, Qs8c, Qh8s, Qd8s, Qc8s, Qs7h, Qs7d, Qs7c, J9o+, Js8h, Js8d, Js8c, Ts9h, Ts9d, Ts9c, Th9s, Td9s, Tc9s

Regards,

Primzi

After no raise on the turn I think you need to remove all hands that include 2 spades.

This should change the equities so that I have more than 7%.

2nd opinion please!

Hi,

As played I would fold the river as well after the raise.

I would check and go for a crying call if MP3 folds. After bet and call You can fold this river imo. But it's close and both options - check/call and check/fold is possible. Depends mostly on reads.
I calculated this hand using equilator and got slightly better result compared to Primzi's (~6.4%). Two spades are unlikely, but if MP3 is passive, he can easily have something like 45s,56s and calling it down.

Maybe if You can provide us stats on Your opponents?

Hi, BDL
If you think there some draws which you're ahead of. So induce a bluff with check/call. And if there will be a raise you're clearly beat.

Hello!

I've talked to Terrorblade about it and he agrees that it is just so unlikely that we're ahead that there's no point in calling the river.

Busted draws? I can hardly see a draw taht doesn't complete ;).

Regards,

Primzi

So thats the point no worse hands will bet and there are no busted draws

Originally posted by Primzi
Hello!

I've talked to Terrorblade about it and he agrees that it is just so unlikely that we're ahead that there's no point in calling the river.

Busted draws? I can hardly see a draw taht doesn't complete ;).

Regards,

Primzi

No point in calling after raise? For sure, but what about check/call when MP3 folds? We are last to act and therefore can decide whether to call or fold depending on action. And since BU 3-beted flop, he could have made hand like 9x,7x,33 or overpair. If he is solid player, river is good card for him to bluff with no showdown value. We have to won 1 of 15 cases and I don't think it's clear fold. Still two possible options for me in that case.

Hello!

Unless he's completely stupid, I don't think he'll bet anything worse than a straight or a flush there in 2 oponnents because any T will call him and any flush will call him. I just don't see him betting anything worse than those hands since he's facing 2 oponnents.

That's why we collect reads and use them in these situations so we can make the perfect decision. Unfortunately, too many people go through forums whilst playing, watch movies, 4+ table... 3-tabling is the highest ammount of tables you can play and still collect all the important reads... Too bad this isn't mentioned in any articles :(.

Regards,

Primzi

Hi guys,

sorry for my late reply.

This is really an ugly river card. At first I prefer a check as there are almost no worse hands calling us so the chance seeing a free showdown is worth something here for me.
If BU bets and MP3 calls then I see a pretty easy fold. The chance that BU bets a worse hand and that MP3 is calling a hand like twopair is way to low.
If MP3 is folding then things get complicated. BU's main range is a flush. Sometimes a straight or better set.
A bluff is possible. I saw them bluffing here sometimes. As the pot is huge we need 7% equity here.
I don't think that he would turn a twopair into a bluff. The free showdown should be the best choice for him. Any worse might be a bluff.

Board: 7s 9c 3s Js 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 05.263% 05.26% 00.00% 2 0.00 { 7d7h }
Hand 1: 94.737% 94.74% 00.00% 36 0.00 { 99, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, Ac9s, Ad9s, Ah9s, As9c, As9d, As9h, Ac7s, Ad7s, Ah7s, As7c, As7d, As7h, Kc9s, Kd9s, Kh9s, Ks9c, Ks9d, Ks9h, Qc9h, Qc9s, Qd9h, Qd9s, Qh9s, Qs9c, Qs9d, Qs9h, Jc9s, Jd9s, Jh9s, Js9c, Js9d, Js9h, T9o, Tc8s, Td8s, Th8s, Ts8c, Ts8d, Ts8h, 9c7s, 9d7s, 9h7s, 9s7c, 9s7d, 9s7h }

With that range you should fold.

If you add 1 more hand combintion (Q 9 :heart:)with which he may bluff then it's a very close call.

Board: 7s 9c 3s Js 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 07.692% 07.69% 00.00% 3 0.00 { 7d7h }
Hand 1: 92.308% 92.31% 00.00% 36 0.00 { 99, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, Ac9s, Ad9s, Ah9s, As9c, As9d, As9h, Ac7s, Ad7s, Ah7s, As7c, As7d, As7h, Kc9s, Kd9s, Kh9s, Ks9c, Ks9d, Ks9h, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qc9s, Qd9h, Qd9s, Qh9s, Qs9c, Qs9d, Qs9h, Jc9s, Jd9s, Jh9s, Js9c, Js9d, Js9h, T9o, Tc8s, Td8s, Th8s, Ts8c, Ts8d, Ts8h, 9c7s, 9d7s, 9h7s, 9s7c, 9s7d, 9s7h }

So the answer is read dependng. If he bluffs 5 or less hands out of his assumed range then it's a fold. (TAG, (thinking LAG) most reasonable opponents.)

If he is bluffing 6 or more hands then you can make the crying call (unthinking LAG, maniac, a lot LP who bluff often when checked to, all unreasonable opponents.)

In short: I don't think that either play is a big mistake as it highly depends on the assumed range, reads, how the table plays and so on.

Thank you very much Cirith, so vs random fish, LAGS and maniacs C/C unless they are really passive then c/f.

I liked this hand, it generated alot of debate.