PokerStars - 25/50 Ante 6 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (CO): 53.44 BB
BTN: 19.38 BB
SB: 13.94 BB
BB: 19.22 BB
UTG: 74.46 BB
UTG+1: 21.7 BB
MP: 67.86 BB
7 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.34 BB) Hero has T♦ T♠
UTG raises to 4.34 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 4.34 BB, fold, fold, fold
Flop: (11.02 BB, 2 players) T♥ 9♥ 2♥
UTG bets 5.52 BB
Hero?
Villain stats: VPIP 54 / PFR 22 (74 hands)
My thoughts about this hand:
Villain seems to be a quite bad and loose player. I saw him calling a lot with marginal made hands on multiple streets. But I never saw him openraising 4.34 BB. Because of his position and betsizing I think he will have a quite strong range. Maybe something like: 99+, AJs+, AQ+, KQs. Preflop I didn't want to 3-bet because of his strong range and lack of fold equity. I hit top set at the flop. He makes a Cbet with 50% potsize, which I think doesn't mean anything in this situation he would probably do this with every single hand in his preflop range (I don't think he should Cbet 50% Potsize with a frequency of 100%, but I think he will). I loose against made Flushes with AhJh+ and KhQh (4 combos) and I win against all the other suited hands, as well as 99+ (27 combos) and AQo+ (24 combos), but 18 of those 99+/AQ+ combos are Flushdraws and 4 combos (KQs) are Gutshots.
Now I have three options I think:
3bet small, maybe ~16BB, then the pot would be ~32BB, which will give him pot odds of ~1:3, remaining effective stack would be ~32 BB:
- He will probably go All-In with every pocket pair and AhJh+, maybe he will just call. With implied odds he can correctly call every hand with one heart, which is not good for me. But maybe I can induce a bluff-4-bet and call with an equity of ~80%, which would be great. Because he is loose, I would call his All-In anyway.
3bet big, maybe ~26BB, then the pot would be ~42BB, which will give him pot odds of ~1:2, remaining effective stack size would be 22BB:
- I give him worse pot odds for his flushdraws. But maybe he also folds some others worse hands like Ax. Now he lacks fold equity for a bluff-4-bet.
All-In, this gives him pot odds of 1:1.5, which means he needs 40% equity for a call:
-There's quite a good chance that he will call anyway with every Flushdraw and every pocket pair, but maybe he will fold a lot of worse hands, which he would've called with smaller betsizing.
I think calling is not an option because of the possibility of him hitting a flush without paying to much to see the Turn/River.
So to summarize I think the question is should I bet big to protect my set against Flushdraws or bet small to slowly extract maximum value from worse hands?
What would do?
