Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:
$0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
Known players:
[tg]MP2$4.56:///////;MP3$5.49:///////;CO$2.07:///////;BU(Hero)$5.97:///////;SB$4.65:///////;BB$10.04:///////;UTG2$2.93:///////;MP1$3.66:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is BU with A:d, K:h.
4 folds, CO raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.50, 2 folds, CO raises to $2.07,
Could someone tell me how to make a calculation to know whether a call is profitable or not ?
He's shortstack, so depends on if he's playing according SSS or not. If you've watched him and see him do moves that are way looser than SSS a call becomes profitbale i think.
Even if he is a short stack, his range is still much looser in CO, so imo, I would go broke with AKo.
To calculate if it's a profitable call, you need to know their 4bet range really. And I think with SSS in CO, it could be 88+ and AJ+ (approx), and some players deviate a little bit from the starting hands chart so it could be wider.
You had to call $1.57 to win $4.21... so you need at least 37% equity against this range. And against the range I stated above, you have around 52%.
Hence, profitable call.
Hi,
You have to call $1.57 to win $2.64 so you're getting around 1.68:1 pot odds, which translates into ~37.3% equity needed. You will always have that equity or better if this guy can 4bet AK or another random bluff. The only way you don't is if he only 4bets premiums, a range like QQ+ for example.
Since he's more of a halfstacker than a shortstacker (good SSS players would have left the table already, unless they just doubled up and want to finish this round or something), i'd say the simple fact that he might not be a good player is enough to type the balance toward you going broke when in doubt and feeling great about it.
Hope it helps.
