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[Closed] 100 NL - 22 on T82ss - 9 getting c/r

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Villain BU: VPIP:23 PFR:18 fold to 3 bets 54.0% 64khands

Villain SB: VPIP:21 PFR:12 call SB 7% WTS: 31 AF:1.7 (agg turn 2.3 Aggr FQ turn 27% c/r turn 15%) 2.3 k hands

NO specific reads on either player

If I give him a range to c/r here, it would be something like this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,892 games 0.005 secs 378,400 games/sec

Board: Tc 9h 2c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.063% 40.06% 00.00% 758 0.00 { 2d2h }
Hand 1: 59.937% 59.94% 00.00% 1134 0.00 { TT-88, QJs, T8s+, 98s, 76s, QJo, T9o }

This range already includes some hands, that I am not even sure of him calling pre, like T9o or T8s. On the other hand I have no read that he is not maybe once in a while raising a hand like a very good draw. Can I fold that here?

IPoker Network $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 365773
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $251.30
UTG: $178.00
CO: $358.80
BTN: $175.82
SB: $100.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with 2 :diamond: 2 :heart:
2 folds, BTN raises to $3, SB calls $2.50, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($9.00) T :club: 8 :heart: 2 :club: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7.00, BTN folds, SB calls $7

Turn: ($23.00) 9 :heart: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $18.00, SB raises to $56


2 replies
Ardarandir
Joined: 27.10.2006

He looks pretty reasonable. So I don't exspect him to call a Gutshot on the flop oop. I do exspect him to make some action on the flop with hands like 8T,88,TT,QcJc,6c7c. That would leave us with a lot of 89,9T,99 here, vs which we should run fairly fine. So I wouldn't fold my set here.


Bierbaer
Joined: 27.05.2005

Based on him calling 7% in the SB i gave him the following preflop-callingrange:
{ JJ-22,AJs-ATs,KTs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,AQo-AJo,KQo}
assuming he'd 3bet the strongest of his hand there.

Once he c/c the flop you can take out a lot of air hands; once he c/r the turn i got the following range:
{JJ-88,AcJc,AhJh,AhTh,KcQc,KhQh,KcJc,KhJh,KhTh,QcJc,QhJh,JhTh,T9s}

Basically some backdoors+pair, backdoors+OESD, overpairs, sets, 2pairs.

Board: Tc 9h 8h 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.188% 49.19% 00.00% 1818 0.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 50.812% 50.81% 00.00% 1878 0.00 { JJ-88, AcJc, AhJh, AhTh, KcQc, KhQh, KcJc, KhJh, KhTh, QcJc, QhJh, JhTh, T9s }

Even if you discharge some more hands and give him a very tight range:
Board: Tc 9h 8h 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.864% 38.86% 00.00% 1026 0.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 61.136% 61.14% 00.00% 1614 0.00 { JJ-88, QcJc, QhJh, JhTh, T9s }

You still have 38% equity while you only need ~35% (72/203).

-> Shove turn.