Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($38.35)
BB ($89.60)
UTG ($18.50)
CO ($202)
Hero ($118)
Dealt to Hero A♦ 7♠
fold, fold, Hero raises to $3, SB raises to $5, fold, Hero calls $2
FLOP ($11) 4♦ 7♥ 3♦
SB bets $33.35 (AI), Hero ???
SB: 39/26/1.7 (70 hands). 3bet% 5.3, cbet% 83%
So preflop I make the call because he only min3bets me. Flop looks good for me, but he suddenly makes this huge overshove?!?!
3bet% is 5%, I know its a small sample size but if it was 5%, he has TT+/AQ+. Just fold, I'm sure you can look for lower variance spots.
This kind of situation is really opponent dependent, we don't know if he will bet small or shove big with value hands, though I'm inclined to think he has AK more often in this spot rather than AA/KK/QQ.
We only invested 5.5$ in this pot, no need to feel pot committed.
Preflop it's close but i think i'd also call with 4.5:1 odds.
On the flop i'd just fold, it's not +EV to call because as mbml said his range is just too strong.
Your value is coming from the times when you hit TP or 2pair and he's stacking off with worse pocket pairs.
