[Closed] Rush 99 overpair

shove it all day long... (that's what the article says btw)

Hi,

Well since it's rush poker raise/call is likely fine, but that's why I don't like this format. It doesn't take much observation to make a better decision in that hand against a guy that seems to have bought in for 100bb and still have exactly that amount, which makes him highly likely to be a regular with autorebuy unless he just entered the game.

If we make the assumption he's some kind of rush poker FR reg, then him limp/calling from MP1 just to 3/4 pot donk that drawy flop and make a small 3-bet over a raise means he has a set there all day long, so the correct play would mostly be to just fold knowing he has a set so often it's not even worth it to verify it when even if he sometimes has a big flushdraw or 54s, we're only flipping with him at best.

But since we can't be sure about that and he could just be an idiot overplaying a naked 5x or 6x/77-88, you can't really be faulted for raising and going broke.

I'm never raise/folding, it just doesn't make much sense to me to put in $2 in there just to make sure we correctly fold the last $3.

Hope it helps.

Btw this spots are really hard without a read. Are u just folding here?

Hi,

Honestly I just don't like MP1's overall line seeing his stack of exactly 100bb that makes me think "autorebuy". Even if he's not some setmining nit that only has a set, if he happens to be some reg he'll have a range we're flipping/dead against, mostly sets/5x+pair/big flushdraws.

I think I'd overcall, fully knowing the turn will screw me over a bunch of times, but I expect MP1 to shutdown with draws if he misses in which case we can get the rest in against the MP3 fish, and to continue to bomb a blank turn with sets, in which case i'll just release my hand.

Just folding on the flop would be a tad weak and probably isn't mathematically correct, but it's worth noting these are the kind of spots where people end up committing 100bb with a marginally good hand just because they happen to have an overpair, when in reality the 99 will rarely hold 3-way even against two fish, and if MP1 is a setmining reg we're smoked.

Hope it helps.