[Closed] Questionable (or not) call from reg

Nash is pretty wide here; has him calling at like 18%. which i personally think is ridiculous.

remember that wiz will over-value the CO stack in this spot.

It's really sick cause hes getting 2:1 and everything... but hes so close to CO stack, that if he folds lets say A8s here for simplicity, and CO doubles next hand, hes fucked.

Kind of weird spot, and i have no idea what the correct range is. but using wiz and nash is a bit redundant because it wont model the next hand factor into this range (which is critical).

If i was SB, first thing i would do is check the time balance. if its <1min I time bank as much as possible to try get to t800 next hand. I honestly have no idea what I would do with A8-AK in this spot.

Why would that be "pretty close" ? I'd gladly call with such a hand here. Actually, with that much chips I'd call A2s as well ♦ Maybe I'm wrong but what else could a villain in this spot hope for ? I think it's a proper call.

Originally posted by Trbst
Why would that be "pretty close" ? I'd gladly call with such a hand here. Actually, with that much chips I'd call A2s as well ♦ Maybe I'm wrong but what else could a villain in this spot hope for ? I think it's a proper call.

the CO has 1BB left and will have 110 chips left after posting next hand and its the bubble.

yeah I see that but....dunno man, I'm kinda reluctant to stay quiet and hope I don't get blinded out before CO who can somehow manage to win a few chips above my stack.

Originally posted by Trbst
Why would that be "pretty close" ? I'd gladly call with such a hand here. Actually, with that much chips I'd call A2s as well ♦ Maybe I'm wrong but what else could a villain in this spot hope for ? I think it's a proper call.

calling with A2s will be so terrible here. We are flipping against pretty much everything.

I just hate these spots (being on his place). I might be results oriented but for me the CO is doubling up at least 97% of times ♦

Anyway...

As <3 said, ICM overvalues the short stack, but how much diffPush% do we need here?

Tell me if this makes sense.

So lets make a few assumptions here: The only person who is gaining chips in any of the situations which we fold is the big stack on BU now. So we assume he is the only one doing the pushing.

Assuming we are the small blind, this is what happens to our equity after the next hand if we fold

- if we fold and shortie doubles 12.71%
- if we fold and shortie loses 23.79%
- if we fold and shortie folds 21.85%
- if we fold and shortie gets a walk 14.53%

This is the equity for calling now
if we call and win 27.22%
if we call and lose 0%

Lets say:

- theres a 10% chance the shortie gets a walk the next hand.
- theres a 10% chance he folds to a push
- theres a 40% theres a push and he calls and wins
- theres a 40% chance he calls and loses

So out equity if we fold, and after the next game plays outs is:
0.1(0.1453) + 0.1(0.2185) + 0.4(0.1271) + 0.4(0.2379) = 0.1824 = 18.24%

So substituting this for the equity of if we fold without modelling the next hand.

The equity we need become 67.01% (18.24/27.22), instead of (15.69/27.22 = 57.64%)

Against a random range, we need 88+ AKs+ to get enough equity to call.

I'm soo lost...

Originally posted by elhh82
Tell me if this makes sense.

So lets make a few assumptions here: The only person who is gaining chips in any of the situations which we fold is the big stack on BU now. So we assume he is the only one doing the pushing.

Assuming we are the small blind, this is what happens to our equity after the next hand if we fold

- if we fold and shortie doubles 12.71%
- if we fold and shortie loses 23.79%
- if we fold and shortie folds 21.85%
- if we fold and shortie gets a walk 14.53%

This is the equity for calling now
if we call and win 27.22%
if we call and lose 0%

Lets say:

- theres a 10% chance the shortie gets a walk the next hand.
- theres a 10% chance he folds to a push
- theres a 40% theres a push and he calls and wins
- theres a 40% chance he calls and loses

So out equity if we fold, and after the next game plays outs is:
0.1(0.1453) + 0.1(0.2185) + 0.4(0.1271) + 0.4(0.2379) = 0.1824 = 18.24%

So substituting this for the equity of if we fold without modelling the next hand.

The equity we need become 67.01% (18.24/27.22), instead of (15.69/27.22 = 57.64%)

Against a random range, we need 88+ AKs+ to get enough equity to call.

Nice analysis. What I usually do to speed things up is take a look at the nash ranges for the next hand. On holdemresources.net it will show you how your equity will change after the hand played out. Since nash ranges are a little better for you than your ranges (i.e. no walks, etc), it says that assuming nash ranges, your equity will go up +0.028 in the next hand. That would equal an equity of 19.05% if we fold the original hand, which means that we'd have to be even tighter than you said. I think it's hard to really nail a range to call here, but I think it's safe to assume that A8s is not a part of that range. More like 88+, AKs like you said.

However there are plenty of regs who do pretty well and call very wide in these spots. I think it's a leak of them, but who knows. It's hard to really proof your point cuz the whole analysis is based on vague assumptions which can easily fool you.

nice analysis elhh, well done.

Okey I've got a couple of questions to summarize that whole thing.

How do we make a decision in game ? Analysis is great but what about when you have 75 seconds to decide.

In those situations, where you're on the bubble, and you do have somebody way shorter then you that's just about to bust out, and you have an ATC (or close to ATC) pushing Big stack, as a rule, only call super tight ? (88+ AKs)

Trbst, just make the thinking here in the forums

This situation is quite common if you have a decent volume:
2 supershots at the buble. As a rule, if the other guy blinds out first you have to be realy tight.

75s? hahah. RJA probably had like 2s at most with the volume he plays...

I understand your points, but I can't fold AQo and maybe even AJo here... AKs seems way too tight for me =p

If we had a bit more chips I'd agree.

Originally posted by LgWz
I understand your points, but I can't fold AQo and maybe even AJo here... AKs seems way too tight for me =p

If we had a bit more chips I'd agree.

Originally posted by hazzelde
I think it's hard to really nail a range to call here, but I think it's safe to assume that A8s is not a part of that range. More like 88+, AKs like you said.

I agree. I think adding maybe down to AJs would be fine. But once u get away from the high broadway aces you lose a lot of equity against an atc range.

the difference between AKs and ATs is 2% against ATC
the difference between ATs and A9s is 2% against ATC.

A good range looks something like what was suggested, maybe a bit looser.

Or like I said, look at the blinds and time down if you can.