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downswing frequencies

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flyingpolishman
Joined: 10.09.2020

So for past 2 weeks I've been playing my bankroll been going from $950 to $700. One day I won a session and then I lose 2 to 3 sessions. Then again, I catch a winning session and boom, terrible sessions starts again. Like I said, my bankroll been swinging like that and I don't know if it's normal. I have like 50k hands in at nl25 with 2bb winrate which I honestly doesn't matter much. I looked at primedope and a with 10bb winrate is facing quite a lot of swings in + 5 buy ins range. At the back of my head it is normal but I wanted to ask on the forum if it's really normal or not. I just can't see how someone can avoid downswings like that when you are coolered left and right.


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Riffman117
Joined: 08.01.2018

The Primedope data is great in terms of visualising this and, for the scale of downswing you're referring to (i.e. 5BI or 500BB) there isn't a sample that it generates which doesn't include multiple repeats of this within a 50k hand sample.

In other words, 5 buy in downswings are an inevitability, whatever your win rate.


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by Riffman117
In other words, 5 buy in downswings are an inevitability, whatever your win rate.

What I hate is the 5 buy-ins in one day!


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flyingpolishman
Joined: 10.09.2020

Yeah. It's crazy because I'm in a downswing, then I start running good and I'm hit with coolers, bad beats again and I have to regrind again.


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arthurbentley
Joined: 12.10.2010

Originally posted by VorpalF2F

Originally posted by Riffman117
In other words, 5 buy in downswings are an inevitability, whatever your win rate.

What I hate is the 5 buy-ins in one day!

My record loss is nine buy-ins in 300 hands. Usual story, maniac on table who just can't lose. Fortunately, it only occurs very rarely. But when it did, I am amazed I didn't smash my computer up. I couldn't leave the table after a stop-loss because that would theoretically be -ev with a crazy stacking off preflop with dominated hands like K J.


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