66 turn

Raise is very big but you’re deep enough to call. Question is do you have implied odds if you hit full house or quads, and it depends on your opponent. Can he fold flush on paired board?

No one will fold a flush on any river but you can't invest nearly half of your stack to hit a good river card.

Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
you can't invest nearly half of your stack to hit a good river card.

Any reasoning behind this statement?
I calculated this in my head, so I’m not 100% sure, but if you’re given correct odds why wouldn’t you invest in it?

I think it works like this:

you need to invest 39BB more (51-12) to get a pot of 82.5BB. So you need to win 47% of the time to profit.
You have only 10 outs, that is approx 20%. So no where near the right odds.

sadly its a Gtfo situation 😎

Originally posted by Oly0909

Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
you can't invest nearly half of your stack to hit a good river card.

Any reasoning behind this statement?
I calculated this in my head, so I’m not 100% sure, but if you’re given correct odds why wouldn’t you invest in it?

Lol where do you see "correct odds" given the few outs we have ?
TurokRider pretty much summed it up.

Originally posted by TurokRider
I think it works like this:

you need to invest 39BB more (51-12) to get a pot of 82.5BB. So you need to win 47% of the time to profit.
You have only 10 outs, that is approx 20%. So no where near the right odds.

I’m talking about implied odds. You have to add your remaining stack that will be shoved on river if you hit. If you know he is not folding flush than my calculation looks roughly like this:
46 cards left / 10 outs = 4,6
39bb * 4,6 ~ 180bb we have to win each time we hit
Pot is currently 82,5BB and our remaining stack is 107,5, it means we will win 190 when we hit. So it makes it +ev.

There are more subtle things to take into account with implied odds. Not only the dream scenario where we always win his whole stack against all his range...

I think this is a tough one simply because its bottom set,yes the way its played it looks like your up against a flush but i think villian could easily play kk-JJ like this given his stats all be it of a small sample and even with implied odds taken into account i think this is a clear fold, However say it was top set then you could look at making the call being +EV...

Originally posted by MyFloXyBabY
There are more subtle things to take into account with implied odds. Not only the dream scenario where we always win his whole stack against all his range...

So you don’t know why, you just feel it should be folded. Ok, that’s one way to play poker...

Originally posted by cms81
I think this is a tough one simply because its bottom set,yes the way its played it looks like your up against a flush but i think villian could easily play kk-JJ like this given his stats all be it of a small sample and even with implied odds taken into account i think this is a clear fold, However say it was top set then you could look at making the call being +EV...

Now, that’s the answer I was looking for. I just saw his stack and asumed he is reg, now looking at his stats, he is clearly fish, and he certenly can play sets this way, so that’s one reason to fold.
Second reason is, I made clear mistake in my calculation as our remaining stack is not 107,5bb, but 68,5bb, so we don’t have implied odds to call.

I think its looks like this.. we are getting just over 2-1 pot odds but we only have 20% equity meaning we are a 4-1 underdog to win the hand so even with implied odds we don't have the stack behind to carry on in the hand to show a profit in the long run when we do hit. Please let me know if i'm wrong with my calculations...

Originally posted by TurokRider
I think it works like this:

you need to invest 39BB more (51-12) to get a pot of 82.5BB. So you need to win 47% of the time to profit.
You have only 10 outs, that is approx 20%. So no where near the right odds.

And again that's not correct. You need to win ~32% of the time for BE. If you don't believe me here is the proof:
32 out of 100 you win 82.5 so 32*82.5=2640
68 out of 100 you lose 39 so 68*39=2652

So 32% is not enough, but 32.1 will be.

If you decide to bet turn, which is not mandatory, you have to fold to the raise imo. Bet/call is too optimistic in this board. Besides, you don't have position.
He could do this with JJ and flushes. KK probably 3bets pre, 88 probably raises your flop cbet.
He could also do it with some draws (Q♣:x, 9♣:x), would be the bottom of his range but he puts pressure on your sets, DP, even TP.
Really don't know how to play this when he check and he bets big. Some info may help, but it is a difficult spot.
Probably bet/fold is ok most of the times.

Originally posted by cms81
I think its looks like this.. we are getting just over 2-1 pot odds but we only have 20% equity meaning we are a 4-1 underdog to win the hand so even with implied odds we don't have the stack behind to carry on in the hand to show a profit in the long run when we do hit. Please let me know if i'm wrong with my calculations...

We have more than enough. We must pay 39 to win 250, so we need less than 20%. But we cannot be sure that he'll call us when we hit and more important we cannot be sure that when we do hit a full house we will have the best hand, we might be drawing to just one out. So I think we must fold here.

ah ok so its what we risk divided by risk plus reward which then gives us our break even %

Cut off only has 1.56 PFR which to me looks very tight and limps a lot. When he raises the turn you need to get lucky with the river, but the implied odds that CO will fire again regardless if it’s a paired board or not should lean you to call the raise and X fold the river if you miss.
But you are (in my option) 100% beat on the turn.
Whether or not to bet if the river does pair then I suggest a good size value bet, but not a small 1/4 pot, somewhere along 80%. At these micro levels, players call way to much despite not holding anything to much.
But if you are competent enough you should easily move on from this hand without to much worry or damage. Unless of course, you’ve seen him do this play before and shown a bluff. If that’s so, I still call the Turn raise and check call ALL rivers.
I would also make a note on this guy about him raising the Turn when the flush gets there, so you know him if you meet him again.

Plaza