92o on BU

Hey legand73,

Preflop open is fine if the blinds are folding a lot to steals.

Flop + turn cbets for value look fine.

Seeing as we have one of the worse 2pair hands we can probably fold to turn x/r. This line looks pretty nutted from villain.

I feel that his value combos are so few though. theres like 8 combos of sets and one T9s that makes any sense. If we put AT on his range which i don't think is unreasonable, then already that makes the call worth it.

Originally posted by legand73
If we put AT on his range which i don't think is unreasonable, then already that makes the call worth it.

Worth it in terms of....?

We can't just look at our turn odds since villain may fire a lot of rivers. He is leveraging his stack etc. So we actually need more pot-equity than our turn odds might suggest. Also there are a reasonable amount of bad river cards.

Worth it in terms of....?

haha seems like i'm just saying meaningless words eh. Um because at the very least AT being in his range then hands like KT, QT might be doing the same even if these are big mights. And the fact that we don't rep much means i'm more in favour since he could be check/raising lighter and then barreling random rivers if he thinks he can get me off my medium strength hands. I don't see too many river cards being bad either.

Also there are a reasonable amount of bad river cards.

Which river cards did you have in mind? maybe a 4,5 or so for the straight draw but I want to be calling vs these cards if he's c/r turn w/ them. Now that i've considered gutshots i'm more in favour of calling if he say c/c something like Q8 w/ backdoor flush (i'm not sure if guys are defending flop this wide though) but considering that he has some reasonable gutshots in his range I like my line more

Originally posted by legand73
. Um because at the very least AT being in his range then hands like KT, QT might be doing the same even if these are big mights.

Possible hands but will only be a small portion of his float OOP range. Even if he has a Tx most guys just don't x/r Tx imo.

Originally posted by legand73
And the fact that we don't rep much means i'm more in favour since he could be check/raising lighter and then barreling random rivers if he thinks he can get me off my medium strength hands.

How do you mean? We are the PFR and have taken zero passive actions. We represent all sets and overpairs still.

Originally posted by legand73
Which river cards did you have in mind? maybe a 4,5 or so for the straight draw but I want to be calling vs these cards if he's c/r turn w/ them.

T or 3 are very bad. Anything above an 8 is not great either (not including 9). Especially if you think he's raising Tx, any broadway card could give him a better 2pair. Low 2pairs like this are always vulnerable.

How do you mean? We are the PFR and have taken zero passive actions. We represent all sets and overpairs still.

I guess I was thinking that we don't rep that many monsters considering the texture but yeah you're right, I take that back we still have all those in our range.

T or 3 are very bad.

do you expect him to have 3x and Tx in his c/r range or in terms of pairing the board and giving him better two pair? because I expect overpairs to have 3bet pre BB vs BU

Anything above an 8 is not great either (not including 9). Especially if you think he's raising Tx, any broadway card could give him a better 2pair. Low 2pairs like this are always vulnerable.

even if he has say QT, KT and AT in his range and he check raises that turn and say an A hits i still expect KT and QT to barrel some of time so we're not always dominated

do you think he could be c/r gutshots on that turn? What do you expect his range to look like on the turn?

My opinion on the hand:

1)PF as coach said if they are really folding a lot of hands from blinds than the steal makes sens other wise you`re just getting in nasty spots.
2)You give us no info on villain so his x/raise range on turn has us beat a lot of the time, no question about that... did you see many Nl10 players x/call flop to x/raise turn with a semi bluff?

Vs unknown: I would fold PF.

As played:
Cbet larger flop , cbet larger turn... fold to raise.

If I get some notes on him that he`s doing raises like that lightly only then I`m going to call turn... call river.

Originally posted by legand73
do you expect him to have 3x and Tx in his c/r range or in terms of pairing the board and giving him better two pair? because I expect overpairs to have 3bet pre BB vs BU

He probably doesn't have a 3x too often, but it will mean a pair of 9s counterfeits us with better kicker some of the time. Some guys will flat overpairs also. Even if a 3 or 9 does not improve him it's going to make calling the river extremely tough knowing we've been counterfeited.

Originally posted by legand73
do you think he could be c/r gutshots on that turn? What do you expect his range to look like on the turn?

Theoretically he should. But we have no information on his x/r. A lot of guys are only x/r sets here at this limit - that's the main issue with this hand. His line looks super nutted and we have no good reason to suspect he's mixing in bluffs with a high enough frequency because a lot of guys won't do this.

Theoretically he should. But we have no information on his x/r. A lot of guys are only x/r sets here at this limit - that's the main issue with this hand. His line looks super nutted and we have no good reason to suspect he's mixing in bluffs with a high enough frequency because a lot of guys won't do this.

Yeah that's fair. I think i'm concerned that If i fold in this spot then i'll be too open to being bluffed off the best hand since guys at this limit don't have well constructed bluff ranges imo. I do have to watch this though because i'm going to showdown too often and am second best more often than not.

cheers weasel

Originally posted by legand73
Yeah that's fair. I think i'm concerned that If i fold in this spot then i'll be too open to being bluffed off the best hand

Yeah I understand.

In reality we actually want ourselves to be exploitable in a lot of spots at these stakes though. I.e in order to exploit guys we have to be exploitable ourselves. So yeah, we might fold with an exploitable frequency on turn here if we fold some 2 pair combos. But if majority of villains only raise sets, who exactly is getting exploited when we fold?