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gandy666
Joined: 11.01.2017

iPoker - €0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 152 BB
BB: 175.5 BB (VPIP: 20.91, PFR: 15.73, 3Bet Preflop: 6.35, Hands: 466)
UTG: 221.5 BB (VPIP: 21.18, PFR: 15.29, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 170)
CO: 31.5 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BTN: 43 BB (VPIP: 24.53, PFR: 12.66, 3Bet Preflop: 4.48, Hands: 164)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♥ 6♥

fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN calls 1 BB, Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB checks

Flop: (4 BB, 4 players) 7♠ T♠ 8♥
Hero bets 2.5 BB, BB raises to 6.5 BB, CO calls 6.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 17 BB, BB raises to 174.5 BB and is all-in, CO calls 24 BB

21/16, 2.2AF, 466hands, Didnt see anything anusual

So this is obvious overbet for me, but is it worth to risk 152BB with 2nd nuts?
And even if we are ahead there are a lot redraws


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4 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

This can be calculated.
I did this quick but I believe you have to risk the remining 135bb to win 169bb?
This means you have to win about 45% to make profit. It is true that you are not very much ahead if villain has sets, 2pair, nuts and strong draws in his range.
Still this should be a +EV call.


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gandy666
Joined: 11.01.2017

So I put him on some tighter range and:
Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.87% 28.84% 14.03% 9h6h
MP3 57.13% 43.09% 14.03% TT, 88-77, J9s, T8s, 96s, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, Th7h, J9o, 96o

What do you think?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

We cannot call:
MP2 32.25% 28.20% 4.05% 9h6h
MP3 67.75% 63.71% 4.05% TT, 88-77, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T8s-T7s, 96s, QsJs, 9s8s


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oI2ange
Joined: 21.07.2015

Say hi to J9. Also, given he's in the BB, he has every single J9o combo too.


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