A9s odds?

Hi joey1toe

Your hand is strong enough to raise preflop to isolate the fish this deep. Shorter stacks is ok to complete.

As played just fold the flop. It's super connected and your hand is really bad with few chances to improve (plus he pots it).

As far as your question goes what do you think? Did you do the math?

I know he pots flop but because the pot is so small I think I have the odds to call to hit trips, two pair, FD on turn... however I don't know if I can from a mathematical point of view call flop & turn since I don't know how odds, pot odds are calculated and to answer your next question, I know there are articles about this in the strategy section however I don't really understand them (at least when it gets to the part of 1:1 2:1 3:1 etc... it would be simpler if all of these were in percentages). So if you could please share the formulas behind calculating these I wouldn't post questions like these anymore ♠_thumbsup: thanks!

Well let's look at what 2:1 actually means.

It means that you for every 2 the 1 happens (hence 2 to 1).

So look at a percentage value, let's say 33%. What is it? It's in fact 33/100 or 1 in 3.

But wait a second. 33% means that something happens once for every two times that it doesn't happen. So isn't that 2:1 or 1 for every 2 (33%, [1 / 1+2] )?

Originally posted by joey1toe
I know he pots flop but because the pot is so small I think I have the odds to call to hit trips, two pair, FD on turn...

This has nothing to do with the actual $ size of the pot. I know that it might be tempting to call his bet and see if we improve our hand since his bet is so small.

Let's take a look at the turn. He pots it again. Meaning that our call odds are 50% (1:1, pot/bet). Now we have a flush draw and let's also count A and 9 as our outs. FD outs 9 and other A and 9 -> 6outs. So now we have 15 cards that can improve our hand out of 46 existing unknown cards. We get hit odds of 32,61% (2.1:1, outs/cards). Since our hit odds are smaller than our call odds we can't call this profitably and we are making a mathematically wrong decision (-EV) meaning that we will lose money in the long run in these spots.

Ofc if he has for example AK we can't count As as our outs which makes our call even worse. Hope this helps. Someone check that i calculated correctly..

la55i,
I may be wrong but I think you forgot that there are already money in the pot.
So we have pot+pot bet from villain+our pot call eventually. So we need 2 to 1 odds.

Originally posted by nitrol
la55i,
I may be wrong but I think you forgot that there are already money in the pot.
So we have pot+pot bet from villain+our pot call eventually. So we need 2 to 1 odds.

You are absolutely right. Don't know what I was thinking :f_rolleyes:.. So if we had that 15 outs it would be a coin flip right?

I think so, but 15 outs is very optimistic.

Yea I know, that was just an example.

"however I don't know if I can from a mathematical point of view call flop & turn since I don't know how odds, pot odds are calculated"

Good discussion here guys.

Keep in mind that when looking at spots like this the bet sizes used can sometimes easily define a range. And putting people on a range should be the first thing you do, even before all the math stuff.