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AA river call?

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joey1toe
Joined: 12.10.2010

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $2.10 (105 bb)
BB: $2.12 (106 bb)
Hero (UTG): $2.36 (118 bb)
MP: $1.80 (90 bb)
CO: $2.93 (146.5 bb)
BTN: $3.12 (156 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $0.06, 4 folds, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.13) 7 J T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.09, BB raises to $0.24, Hero calls $0.15

Turn: ($0.61) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $0.41, Hero calls $0.41

River: ($1.43) K (2 players)
BB bets $1.41 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$1.43 pot ($0.05 rake)
Final Board: 7 J T 3 K
BB mucked and won $1.38 ($0.67 net)
Hero mucked A A and lost (-$0.71 net)

BB: 21/16 over 58 hands, cbet OOP 100 (2), WTSD WSF 29 (7)

Judging by his cbet stat of 100% cbet OOP his flop line suggests to me that he flopped a set, regardless can't really fold AA otf, same on turn can't fold on that blank, he can still have a lot of Jx hands there now even a FD perhaps to go with it, river however completes 2pair and possible but unlikely OESD, can't really risk all my stack given his aggression so far can I?


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3 replies

Hi joey1toe

He cannot cbet in this case because you are the PFR (he just called).

So I wouldn't look at that number at all.

And you have too small of a sample otherwise anyway thus you look at how often people (regs) at 2nl raise cbets on such boards. And how many fires blanks as bluff.

What do you think? Where should you fold?


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joey1toe
Joined: 12.10.2010

From experience there are some that c/r flop but give up turn without holding something strong and I can certainly give credit to his turn bet and fold but I always talk myself into thinking he's barrelling with AJ or QK (although QK is more likely to call flop than raise it) ... hmm thinking about it I think turn is a fold.


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I would agree with you here.

You have to be able to make these big folds at the lower limits where people seldom bluff or raise thin for value.


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