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AJ Flush draw OTF

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LeMahdi
Joined: 10.02.2019

PokerStars - €0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 144 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 101.5 BB
CO: 101.5 BB
Hero (BTN): 100.5 BB
SB: 49 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♣ A♣

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, CO raises to 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 7 BB

Flop: (31.5 BB, 3 players) 3♣ J♠ T♣
MP checks, CO bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB, fold

Turn: (71.5 BB, 2 players) 6♦
CO bets 71.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 70.5 BB and is all-in

River: (212.5 BB, 2 players) 5♦

CO shows K♣ K♠ (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 68%, Flop 51%, Turn 70%)
Hero shows J♣ A♣ (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 32%, Flop 49%, Turn 30%)
CO wins 200 BB

Considering the fact his range was, KK,AA,QQ, do you still thinks that it was an incorrect call? I mean I had good number of outs I guess?


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7 replies
zetozinho
Joined: 18.06.2017

Fold preflop. You shouln't be cold calling from the BTN.
CO 3bet range vs MP is still going to be very strong and your hand could be dominated, despite being suited. You give MP great odds for call too.
You have 2:1 OTT, so you need 33% equity to call.
9 outs for the flush, 2 more jacks and the ace can be a good card too if he has QQ or KK.
14 outs total in the best case scenario is about 30% equity, so it's about break-even the call (in terms of pure pot odd analysis).
If he has bluffs in his range (which I doubt), you could be ahead with TPTK and you have extra equity.
Even against a range of TT-AA and JT you have 27% equity.


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srichards
Joined: 26.11.2012

Because of the statistical reasons stated by zetozinho, your call was certainly reasonable. I tend to fold All-In calls which require that I hit the flush to win. But, my strategy may not be mathematically correct. However, I suspect that it reduces variance. I tend to call 3 bet and raises up to 8 big blinds with a hand like AJs. Your decision to call a 3 bet was understandably criticized by zetozinho. However, calling a 10 big blind 3 bet does not seem to be very unreasonable. I would not call a 12 or more big blind 3 bet with AJs.


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KatalonacX
Joined: 22.11.2013

It is clear fold preflop,imo.
OTF we can call and go all-in profitably, against range QQ+.
OTT we don't have enough odds to call, it is slightly -EV,imo.


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LeMahdi
Joined: 10.02.2019

Originally posted by zetozinho
CO 3bet range vs MP is still going to be very strong and your hand could be dominated,

But we do not know what the flop will come. A flop can come Aces, Jacks or Flushs. So because he did 3bet the MP he is strong , I agree, but does that mean I should not see a flop?


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semiramiRNMD
Joined: 25.10.2009

Very bad cold call PF. I wouldn't recommend a cold 3-b call with any hand from any position, unless in a very rare cases when you have very specific reads on the players. Call OTF obviously and clear fold OTT you need 1/3 and you have 32% if all your outs are clean, so it is already -EV and if we put the rake into account it will be even more -EV, and of course your 32% are not guaranted, it might be just drawing to a clean flush, just 8 outs and just 18%. So it is either small -EV or big -EV and never +EV.


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semiramiRNMD
Joined: 25.10.2009

And the next time you can just do the calculations, instead of asking here. Not because it is a problem, but because it's better for you. Download Equlab, it's free and do it:

Compare this number 29.5 with 70.5/213.5=33 and you'll see that the call is -EV if this is the range of the villain. And because he won 200 after the rake so you actualy need 70.5/200=0.352, or you are losing 11.5 BB with the call.


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IPtkv
Joined: 30.08.2011
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