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AQo ~ River decision

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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $10.22
Hero (SB): $10.76
BB: $10.10 (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 21.74, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 23)
UTG: $13.07 (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 12.62, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 109)
MP: $20.94 (VPIP: 23.40, PFR: 21.28, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 49)
CO: $11.56 (VPIP: 25.16, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 3.28, Hands: 161)

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A♥ Q♣

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.27, fold, Hero raises to $1.00, fold, CO calls $0.73

Flop: ($2.10, 2 players) 9♦ J♠ Q♠
Hero bets $1.34, CO calls $1.34

Turn: ($4.78, 2 players) Q♥
Hero bets $2.28, CO calls $2.28

River: ($9.34, 2 players) 2♠
Hero checks, CO bets $6.15, fold

Spoiler

CO wins $8.92

Tough one, I know.
Obviously think he's raising a straight on this board, he doesn't have to raise JJ/99 though. Also flush draws are in his range.
On the turn I doubt he's calling many flush draws here? After it pairs. Looks like JJ/99/JQ perhaps J10 Q10 AQ.
Think he's baaare polarized on the river or perhaps more de-polarized to value heavy?
Although we do block JQ with our AQ, think he has a small amount of made hands here. And I think he can flat the turn in the hopes I hit my draw.

I didn't have time bank to think this fully through, appreciate your opinions!


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5 replies
DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

Not sure if this is another one of my in-famous nit folds:f_cool:


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MatoStar
Joined: 22.07.2017

Well, I think his range otr is only made hands (flushes full houses) or showdown value (strong two pairs, trips). And made hands he will bets and hands with showdown value he will check back. Maybe he can turns to bluff hands like AKo or TT and sometimes bets for value AQ (because now your range isn't stronger than AQ). So generally in this situation he will bet mainly for value I think, so as played fold river.


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paolaeanto
Joined: 09.11.2014

In my opinion oppo here had a monster..fold river wrong!

it can also have AK or KK AA TT


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KingKlaas
Joined: 13.12.2008

Normally there should be enough bluffs in the range on the river.
A set or straight would already have been raised on the flop i guess.
I would call this on the river.


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MatoStar
Joined: 22.07.2017

Originally posted by paolaeanto
In my opinion oppo here had a monster..fold river wrong!

it can also have AK or KK AA TT

Do you think your opponent will value bet AA, KK? (btw it should be 4bet PF) And besides TT and AK what bluffs do you expect from your opponent?


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