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Big draw multiway

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Gianzzurri99
Joined: 13.02.2019

Hand from Igniton 5NL, just wondering whether this is a profitable shove in the long run?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.05(BB)
HERO ($5.23) [VPIP: 24.6% | PFR: 13.6% | AGG: 25.4% | 3-Bet: 6% | Hands: 5751]
BB ($5) [VPIP: 40.5% | PFR: 13.5% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 37]
UTG ($4.99) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 20.5% | AGG: 45% | 3-Bet: 25% | Hands: 44]
EP ($4.86) [VPIP: 2.9% | PFR: 2.9% | AGG: 50% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 35]
MP1 ($1.63) [VPIP: 13.8% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 25% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 29]
MP2 ($5.14) [VPIP: 26.7% | PFR: 13.3% | AGG: 60% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 15]
HJ ($31.64) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 27.1% | AGG: 44.8% | 3-Bet: 7.7% | Hands: 50]
CO ($7.46) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 18.4% | AGG: 48% | 3-Bet: 4.3% | Hands: 49]
BTN ($2.3) [VPIP: 32% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 12.5% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 25]

Dealt to Hero: T♦ Q♦

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP1 Folds, MP2 Raises To $0.25, HJ Calls $0.25, CO Calls $0.25, BTN Folds, HERO Calls $0.23, BB Calls $0.20

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.8 effective]
Flop ($1.25): 7♦ 9♠ 8♦
HERO Checks, BB Checks, MP2 Bets $0.89 (Rem. Stack: 4.00), HJ Calls $0.89 (Rem. Stack: 30.50), CO Calls $0.89 (Rem. Stack: 6.32), HERO Raises To $4.98 (allin), BB Folds, MP2 Folds, HJ Calls $4.09 (Rem. Stack: 26.41), CO Raises To $7.21 (allin), HJ Calls $2.23 (Rem. Stack: 24.18)

Turn ($21.54): 7♦ 9♠ 8♦ 2♥

River ($21.54): 7♦ 9♠ 8♦ 2♥ 3♦

Spoiler

HJ shows: 7♣ 7♥
CO shows: T♣ Q♣

HJ wins: $4.24
HERO wins: $16.23


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Oh boy, this could be a bit difficult to answer :)

Note: your flush draw is not to the nuts and if you hit a 6 you could be behind also. You are against multiple opponents.

We could calculate your EV if we know how much equity you have and can estimate how often villains fold. But because there are multiple villains, estimating those get a lot more difficult.

I can try to calculate something later if I remember, but if I had to guess quickly I would say that with draws not to the nuts and so many opponents, it is probably not +EV. Or at least not hugely profitable move. But I might be wrong.


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