CALL 3 BARRELS??

By 4b pre u turn your hand into a bluff. AQo is strong enough to just call, so that´s what I´d do. I think you played it well, you block the straight, you don´t block diamonds. On the other hand I don´t see ppl triple barrel here as a bluff often. But yeah, unless you know tendencies I believe this should be call down. I would never fold OTT.

I disagree with @Mozzek here and actually think 4betting is a good move in this spot. He is 3betting a lot from the SB against BTN open raises. You may not have as much fold equity as your range appears a lot wider coming from the BTN but nonetheless I’d say you are ahead of most of his range.

Post flop, he is a reg TAG and is displaying a lot of aggression. What would he fire 3 barrels against you with that you beat? AJ, KJd, QQ, JJ? Not a lot compared to what he is beating you with: AA, AK, AT, KK, KT, QJ, TT.

Therefore I think you can fold OTR UNLESS you have some sort of read on him. If he is firing three barrels often or you’ve seen him get to showdown a few times before with a weak hand. You could look at his W$SD statistic also to get an idea of this, though I’m not sure what this stat typically looks like.

In addition to Horsley: QQ is less likely because of card removal, but same goes for Aces, AK, AT, QJ. If Villain has a 21% 3bet range he may as well bet some Ax of diamonds like that. I am not too sure if it makes sense but I see this as brainstorming.

Originally posted by clovenhoofsdoom
In addition to Horsley: QQ is less likely because of card removal, but same goes for Aces, AK, AT, QJ. If Villain has a 21% 3bet range he may as well bet some Ax of diamonds like that. I am not too sure if it makes sense but I see this as brainstorming.

Good point about the QQ! I also agree that he bets some Ax of diamonds this way. I can’t remember off the top of my head but 21% range has a good number of Ax suited hands in it.

IMO, calling is as good as 4bet here. You can choose either one preflop to balance your range against an agg regular.

The river was a bad card as it turned many worse Ax into a split after show down. As played, I would probably call down in the same way.

I've seen NL5k guys put in a very sporadic mixes of AQo 4bets when it's a very aggro dynamic and they just get it in pre (Ohheycindy vs Linus comes to mind) But the thing is you don't know much what do do vs a jam
And your stats are not reliable with the small sample of just 2k

So I've never seen the appeal of 4betting a hand like this one where you can fold out a ton of equity when he jams and you don't know how he reacts to 4bets reliably

I'd assume vs the standard 2.5-3X 4bet nowadays people still won't flat enough properly at NL25
So I'd call keep all his KQo QJo someone overly aggro might have in along with his weak Ax there
And just add some AXs KXs mixes to 4bet range possibly even AQs AJsinstead...those hands play so much easier
You 4bet, get called, flop a backdoor fd 41%+of the time cbet shove when you turn it, easy game where AQo is not so great

And river's counterintuitive here, my spidey sense was just wrong wanted to say it's close, call or fold but after running it through snowie it's just a fold
And here's why
he can safely jam hands like AQ AJ himself here and there's now much you can do about it
Because you're drawing only to a chop now which makes bluff catching really much less enticing

Like even with a range like this

With all these AQ AJ QT jams
The AQ has -15bb ev on the river on a call

Sure, he's looser pre, so he can have more XXdd hands
But would people really expect you to fold Ax here?
And would they really jam their own Ax that go into a chop at NL25?
I don't think so
So we have to let go here
even though it sucks
And frankly, I have leveled myself into calling sometimes because he 3bets a lot in the past when I used to play these limits so it's hard to fault you for this one. Being a meganit and calling AT+ is the way to go it seems

Very nice analysis Lemon! :appl::appl:
At last he shows me QJo !

I agree that you are ahead of 3b range, but if you 4b you iso raise into much tighter range, that´s why I like AQo just as a call. I didn´t see any of you guys mentioning 7d8d, 8d9d, QTs and JTs in his bluffing range, did you consider these hands in your analysis? Does snowie have SC in 3b range?

Easy fold on the river. This board smashes his range, gets underbluffed, let alone triple barrel bluffed. His range is uncapped( he can have TT+, whereas we don't).
On the river you're calling for a split, which means you have to be right alot more than if you're calling for the entire pot. I see 0 bluffs in his range here.

Also, since when are 2,5x-3x 4bets normal? on my stakes that would mean 4betting 25-30bb ?!

I would opt to 4bet here a small % of the time with AQo, AQs is a flat to me, AQs plays easier in 3bet pots compared to 4bet pots. in 4bet pots draws matter less, whereas highcards are more important, hence i would put AQs in my calling range.

If his 21% 3bet stat is a true stat he will have a hard time playing back vs a 4bet here.

I agree with Lemon but want to add a simple note. If you have a nice sample of hands on villain, you should check not only the fold-to-4b stat but also 5b/call to 4b stat. In this way you can see what part of his range he is pushing vs 4b. If he is rarely 5betting, you can think of 4b.