Can we get away from this?

timkuy

Joined: 29.01.2009

10.03.2019, 19:08 0

partypoker - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

I think the question here is can we get away on the river? Would you have played anything else differently?

MP: 41.44 BB (VPIP: 27.08, PFR: 17.62, 3Bet Preflop: 6.69, Hands: 2,431)
CO: 75.44 BB (VPIP: 26.51, PFR: 15.59, 3Bet Preflop: 6.70, Hands: 2,404)
Hero (BTN): 81.98 BB
SB: 202.72 BB (VPIP: 26.52, PFR: 17.90, 3Bet Preflop: 7.18, Hands: 2,550)
BB: 78.9 BB (VPIP: 26.83, PFR: 16.72, 3Bet Preflop: 6.59, Hands: 2,071)
UTG: 96.48 BB (VPIP: 30.01, PFR: 16.31, 3Bet Preflop: 5.86, Hands: 2,524)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♦ T♦

fold, MP raises to 2.3 BB, CO calls 2.3 BB, Hero calls 2.3 BB, fold, BB calls 1.3 BB

Flop: (9.7 BB, 4 players) 8♣ A♥ A♠
BB checks, MP checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: (9.7 BB, 4 players) 4♥
BB bets 5.5 BB, MP calls 5.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 5.5 BB

River: (26.2 BB, 3 players) A♦
BB checks, MP bets 13.4 BB,

Can we still fold? Putting villain on an 8 here like 75-80% of the time. The odds considering a split pot I calculate to about 2 to 1 (53/2 to 13.4), meaning we only need to split 1 out of 3, even if he has us beat 66% of the time a call is still warranted? Seems very hard to get away then. Is this thought process sound?

Thnx for your comments

Spoiler

Hero calls 13.4 BB, fold

MP shows A♣ 5♣ (Four of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 55%, Flop 99.9%, Turn 100%)
Hero mucks 8♦ T♦ (Full House, Aces full of Eights)
(Pre 45%, Flop 0.1%, Turn 0%)
MP wins 50.36 BB

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3 replies

zetozinho

Joined: 18.06.2017

Posts: 1,470

10.03.2019, 19:45 0

First of all, why are you playing short stack? This is a hand with 4 short stackers, so they're probably recreationals.
I'd probably take a shot OTF from time to time.
MP can have higher pairs, his flop check means nothing.
Getting those odds it is a pretty tempting call with a full. Another problem here is that it is 3 way OTR and BB could try some move when you call IP not showing strength.
The ace should be is a safe card too. It reduces a lot the Ax combos they might have. Despite that, the fact that MP didn't raise turn tells me his Ax is often a weak ace.
Overall, I don't think this is a spot you should be very worried about. Don't know about NL50 tendencies, but I also don't think you can make higher fulls fold often, because you did flat preflop.

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timkuy

Joined: 29.01.2009

Posts: 32

10.03.2019, 21:42 0

thnx for your thoughts bro! ...full disclosure: was short cause I was shot-taking under-rolled :f_drink: yolo

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vengeance77

Joined: 18.04.2010

Posts: 1,297

14.03.2019, 20:03 0

That call PRF is obv very bad, in some cases you can consider an squeeze, but fold is with the highest EV in this case for sure! Villain is opening 17% from mp, and there is an cc as well!
OTF it is an very easy X/Fold!
OTT is absolutely easy snap Fold, because BB has a ton of Ax and 88 as well, and MP has 88+, AA and can have some Ax as well You are continuing to do -EV moves!
OTR seriosly dude you shouldn't even asking for the river anything else, than snap Fold is a very very loosing game! You will never be a head OTR!

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