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Flopped nuts

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marsa08
Joined: 30.01.2014

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

SB: $18.30 (183 bb)
Hero (BB): $11.52 (115.2 bb)
UTG: $10.38 (103.8 bb)
MP: $10 (100 bb)
CO: $24.19 (241.9 bb)
BTN: $18.54 (185.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q♣: J♣:
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.20, CO calls $0.20, BTN calls $0.20, SB folds, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.85) 8♦: 9♠: T♣: (4 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets $0.60, BTN folds, Hero raises to $1.90, MP folds, CO calls $1.30

Turn: ($4.65) 3♥: (2 players)
Hero bets $3.40, CO calls $3.40

River: ($11.45) 8♥: (2 players)
Hero bets $6.02 and is all-in, CO calls $6.02

No info on villains.

Flop: x/raise seems ok, I could lead aswell but I'm not really afraid of any turns expect paired turns. But if someone has a set or 2p he will bet this flop so I don't need to worry about giving a free card so x/r seems best, I can get the most money in with nuts.

Turn: bet for value

River: River card sucks, but I guess that I have to just ship it in as I have just over half pot bet left. Also by x/c we miss value from worse hands + I don't see many hands that he can turn into a bluff. --> jam instead of x/c. x/f is too weak.


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9 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I don't see many hands he would turn into a bluff either. So that means check folding shouldn't be too weak.
Maybe you could also make a small block bet and fold to a raise, something around 2$? That might look like a trap to villain and I don't see a good villain getting induced so often by that because he has so little fold equity. So I think if villain raises OTR it would be safe to fold?


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

I like check/calling the flop which you didn't seem to consider, but check/raising directly is fine as well.
As played I suppose betting the river is rather close with x/f, as we can still hope to value thin some J8, 78, 67, 9T etc so I wouldn't mind too hard if I impale myself over a full here.


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

I like it as played, only variance (villain's hitting a full house) is your enemy here.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

There are hands a villain might turn into a bluff, like JX. There are some worse hands he is likely to call with. Overpairs? Maybe. T9s? Only two such combos possible (you are not deep enough for him to have many T9o), and I mostly rule out A8 on the flop. One slight problem with betting is that you automatically give him the right implied odds to draw on turn. On the other hand, we don't play only against a part of his range. But I think prefer check-calling overall. I'd Check-fold a worse straight for balance.


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I like it as played. Just few things. I would usually 3bet this preflop, because we don´t have a position. Flop is ok, but I would make it a bit bigger, which would lead to smaller bet OTT and we could shove OTR with betting only 1/2 of the pot on every street. As played, I don´t like the size of bet OTT, it´s too big imo. But I believe it´s not that big issue at NL10, just saying, what you can improve.


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marsa08
Joined: 30.01.2014

Originally posted by Mozzek
I like it as played. Just few things. I would usually 3bet this preflop, because we don´t have a position. Flop is ok, but I would make it a bit bigger, which would lead to smaller bet OTT and we could shove OTR with betting only 1/2 of the pot on every street. As played, I don´t like the size of bet OTT, it´s too big imo. But I believe it´s not that big issue at NL10, just saying, what you can improve.

Really? Squeeze QJs OOP into 3 players? + if one of them calls (which is really likely in nl10) then they all will likely call as they get good odds. Then we will be OOP in multiway pot with a weak and dominated hand in a bloated pot. I think that that can't really be +EV.

And I don't agree with raising bigger flop either. We can bluff raise here too with this sizing and bluffing is then cheaper (yes, I will play some Jx here like this too). Also I want to bet big turn because I want to make villain put the most money in and then fold when we have a bluff(eg. he calls flop+turn and folds river and we get the dead money.) I think that we don't have a lot of fold equity with 1/2 pot turn bet. Also we get more value from worse ott with big bet. Why do you think that the turn bet is too big? Imo bigger bets are better for our polarized range here than 1/2 pot bets.

Not to say that you are incorrect or that I'm correct or whatever but I just don't se a good reason to do what you said. Maybe you could explain a bit more about your thoughts and I would then get it?


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

I'd argue that QJs is pretty much exactly the hand that loves to see a cheap MW pot and hates a big HU pot OOP (which is the most likely outcome at any level):)


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MyFloXyBabY
Joined: 15.02.2010

I also dislike raising QJs here for all the said reasons, not to mention it's neither Janda nor Snowie's advice to do so. Overall that makes a pretty strong incentive not to raise it in my opinion and a pretty strong insight that it shouldn't be more playable to do so at any stakes.


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

Well, I would 3 bet this, because MP bets small and then CO and BU calls, their range is wide here. Calling is ok, I just mix it myself.

You mentioned FE. But we have the nuts, why would we want villain to fold? I said to bet smaller OTT, because I don´t want him to fold and I want to put all my money in OTR. I meant it this way: if you bets bigger OTF, you don´t have to bet big OTT (which is strong move), therefore villain is more likely to call. And on the river you have easy all in betting only 1/2 of the pot - again vilain is likely to call. These sizings seem more "natural" and better to extract value to me.


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