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[FR] 99

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biogas
Joined: 22.07.2010

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $15.09 (150.9 bb)
BB: $8.69 (86.9 bb) 37/20/2,3 over 190 hands
UTG+1: $10 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $13.32 (133.2 bb)
Hero (MP1): $10.19 (101.9 bb)
MP2: $4.90 (49 bb)
MP3: $9.53 (95.3 bb)
CO: $3.79 (37.9 bb)
BTN: $7.73 (77.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9♠: 9♦:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.29, 4 folds, SB calls $0.24, BB calls $0.19

Flop: ($0.87) Q♠: 4♥: 9♥: (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.42, Hero raises to $1.18, SB folds, BB calls $0.76

Turn: ($3.23) 6♦: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, BB calls $1.75

River: ($6.73) J♠: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Results:

Spoiler

$6.73 pot ($0.30 rake)
Final Board: Q♠: 4♥: 9♥: 6♦: J♠:
BB showed Q♣: 3♣: and lost (-$3.22 net)
Hero showed 9♠: 9♦: and won $6.43 ($3.21 net)

Pre: standard
OTF: raising it as BB looks aggro, he might bet with a draw or Qx.
OTT: maybe I should bet more?
OTR: straight draw completes, not sure if there is any value left...


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6 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Agree with the bigger bet on turn.
On river you can xb safe.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

OTT slightly bigger bet. Otherwise this looks fine.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Easy value bet on the river.

The straight draw did not complete. If you are too scarred to bet when a possible (but highly unlikely) gutshot straight draw hits, you can't win.

I'd say it is at least a 10 bb mistake (missed EV of 10 bb) to not bet turn slightly bigger (small mistake) and not to bet river (big mistake). I'd say he'll call a 75% pot bet at least 25% of the time. This is 13 bb missed value. Once per year (always on Wednesdays), you'll lose, so deduct 3 bb. The result is 10 bb. (I believe this is a conservative estimate.) Compare this to a marginal preflop decision that differs in +/- 0.1 bb.


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Pajod
Joined: 05.08.2008

Raise bigger on the flop - you gave him incredibly good odds + you lost shit load of value.
Bet bigger on the turn and you've got clear value bet on the river and its not even close.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

In fact we can bet river, yes...
I like betting more than the safe xb.


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