KK pre

Now, this is the time when you can think of folding KK....
But if you haven't, it is not a big deal.

I would call here. The guy looks tight but you have only 15 hands. On the long run you will make a lot of money by going broke with KK pre flop.
I don't think his range is KK+ only.. It is at least KK+,AKs and then we can add some combos of AKo,QQ and JJ too..

If villain only have AA or KK
When we fold we lose 18BB.
When we call we lose 36,23BB evertime.

How did you come up with these?

We have 22,3% equity with KK vs KK+.
We need to call 82BB to win 205.5BB * (0.223) = 46 BB So if we call 82 and win 45 BB we get -36BB

Originally posted by kazkas777
We have 22,3% equity with KK vs KK+.
We need to call 82BB to win 205.5BB * (0.223) = 46 BB So if we call 82 and win 45 BB we get -36BB

Remember - If you have KK you will block many combos in KK+. So there will be 6 combos of AA and only 1 combo of KK. Which means you only have around 15% to take the pot down. Sometimes there will be ties to. Like flushes and straights.

What I get from the the strategy articles is that equity is the chance to win the hand and not the pot.

Correct me if i am wrong I am still new to this.

Originally posted by imty103

What I get from the the strategy articles is that equity is the chance to win the hand and not the pot.

So what chance is to win the pot with KK vs KK+?

Isn't it 22% ?

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
71,916,768 trials (Exhaustive)
KK+ 77.38% (50,594,604 wins, 10,112,532 ties)
KK 22.62% (11,209,632 wins, 10,112,532 ties)

I´m also pushing there. As it´s been said before, you have only small sample and KK are the second best hand you can have. He can have AA, but as you don´t know him, you don´t know if he does this with AK, QQ, JJ. You might stand against AA, but to fold KK we need some sort of read imo. I wouldn´t complicate it and simply call. If he has AA, well that happens, next time it will be vice versa.

Originally posted by kazkas777

Originally posted by imty103

What I get from the the strategy articles is that equity is the chance to win the hand and not the pot.

So what chance is to win the pot with KK vs KK+?

Isn't it 22% ?

I get 15% for winning the pot and around 7% for splitting the pot.

Originally posted by imty103
I get 15% for winning the pot and around 7% for splitting the pot.

from propokertools.com
71,916,768 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
KK+ 77.38% 50,594,604 10,112,532
KK 22.62% 11,209,632 10,112,532

win (11,209,632/71,916,768) = 15,5 %
lose (50,594,604/71,916,768) = 70 %
tie (10,112,532/71,916,768) = 14%

win (205.5 *0.155) = 31.85 BB
tie (205.5 *0.14)/2 = 14.39 BB

We need to call 82 BB to win 31.85 BB+14.39 BB, so its 46BB - 82BB = -36 BB.

First thing is that his range is not KK+, in reality it is wider. But to keep this simple let's assume it is KK+.

MP2 22.61% 15.58% 7.03% KK
MP3 77.39% 70.36% 7.03% KK+

You will win it 15% of the times and villain wins it 70% of the times.. And you split the pot total of 14% of the times.
Your win% plus half of the total splits is your equity, so it is 22.61% here.

The pot is 1.5(blinds)+3+2.5+18+82(villains shove effectively)=125 bb
So you have to invest 82bb to win the pot of 125bb, you don't "win" your call, you win the current pot.

So when you win, you win 125bb and when you lose you lose 82bb. With 22% equity that makes it -36bb EV call.
Kazkas777, your method seems to work too (calculating EV using the total pot after our call).

Good work Kazkas777

I tried and learned something

It's not common to see a guy pushing for 170bb with AA, he would have played out diffferently most of the time to get more value out of it, it's substiantial to say a call is more than reasonable.

I never fold KK in this spot. I definitely fold AK, and consider folding QQ sometimes. But vs. an unknown (14 hands) this is an auto-call. Of course they have AA in their range, but you cannot limit the players to only these 6 combos. Sometimes they are on tilt and shove with 55's, who knows.

On the other hand: They also go broke vs. you with their KK when you have AA. Therefore it will always be a 50/50 play in the long run (but more favorable to you, because you won't go broke with AK/QQ as an UTG raise vs. a squeeze, without any reads)

For my experience here utg has only ak and push in bluff,
in any case after 15 hands assume that he has only kk+ is a mistake, if he has aa is a cooler imho, why not qq+ak with dead money of 27bb?

I called and he had AA actually ♦. Ofc some players (not nits) can also have AK and QQ here. But i think many players just call squeeze with QQ and AK IP and they dont have allin bluffs here becouse its NL2.

Actually..AA is the only part of UTG range that you 4-bet against the BB. So I guess you had to know what he has.

He tried to hide it by shoving maybe.

I think the biggest lesson OP should take from posting this hand is to be not too results-oriented. Things like these happen all the time in Poker. You made the correct decision for sure There's not really a need to argue for folding here, just because he had AA

I miss deepish co and sb, but i never fold kk pre 100x

I'd never fold KK here either, if you did fold it anytime you think your up against aces you'd lose out on the times they actually held AK or QQ. Its a call and if they have AA thats poker.

In saying that KK is my bogey hand, people seam to draw out to a 2 card flush or draw more often when I have it than any other hand.

Yesterdays experience from NL4. I had KK. Villain 3 bets, I 4 bet. He shoves. I call. He has A10o. His stats were decent (25VPIP). However, flop came A6T, but that´s a detail.