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KQo 2 overs + gutter vs narrow range

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marcosmartinez
Joined: 03.07.2013

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $25 (100 bb)
BB: $28.38 (113.5 bb)
UTG+1: $38.68 (154.7 bb)
UTG+2: $25 (100 bb)
MP1: $26.73 (106.9 bb)
MP2: $26.97 (107.9 bb)
MP3: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
CO: $26.54 (106.2 bb)
BTN: $20.56 (82.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K Q
4 folds, MP3 raises to $0.62, CO folds, BTN calls $0.62, Hero raises to $2.60, BB folds, MP3 calls $1.98, BTN folds

Flop: ($6.07) T 2 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.19, MP3 calls $3.19

Turn: ($12.45) 3 (2 players)
Hero?

Hi guys!

Villain 15/12, wtsd 12 wwst 55, 900 hands

OR at MP 17%, fold to 3b 59%, 50% at MP

Cb flop 62%, turn 56%, river 56%

fold to cb 3b pot 50%, 40% single raised pots

fold to cb turn 0%, 71% river (single raised pots)

he seems to be a pretty agro player so i dont want to flat OOP with this hand in a MWP. i decide to sqz as a bluff for that

Postflop>

flop i decide to bet with the intention to make him fold some AJs, AK, AQ, maybe some 77-88, i have 2 overs and a gs so i think is ok

turn doesnt change anything and this guy isnt folding on that street, so.. do u think that bet turn and bet all rivers except K/Q/ is a good plan? I expect a lot of folds otr given his fold to river bet (76%) but 99,TT, JJ, QQ, T9s are in his range too.. so i dont know if a triple barrel plan here is good. If i hit Q or a K i wold just xf my hand expecting him to check behind some middle pairs and some QJ, JT hands

Regards


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3 replies
WilliamBoo
Joined: 11.06.2012

Al Qaeda se adjudicó el ataque a Charlie Hebdo y de tu Cbet.
Para mí tenés poquísima fold equity. Y cuando ligues esas over, además podés correr el riesgo de ir dominado, por lo cuál las outs que tenés para cbetear en flop, están algo pisadas. No veo nada de malo en hacer x/f. Tiene mano casi siempre, y en el mejor de los casos también tiene proyectos. Eso sí....las manos que querés tirar, vas a tener que meterle muchos barrels, por lo que as played, deberías seguir barreleando.

Anyway....let's continue in english, please :)


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marcosmartinez
Joined: 03.07.2013

I dont understand sudacas languaje ..

he is folding 50% to 3b so probably against a sqz he is narrowing his range like 60%

so 17*0.6 = 10%, his calling range is like 7%

i bet 3.19 to win 6.07, so i must take down the pot 35% of the time

he have 86 combos in his calling range, i expect he will continue with this range

86 - 100%
50 - 58%

he is folding 42% of his range so if ranges are estimated right is +EV the cbet + resign plan, but i think 3 barrels EV is higher

what do u think?


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Hi Marcos,

I don't think it's realistic in this day and age (and limit) to expect villain to just fold AQ/AK type hands to one 1/2 pot cbet on this flop.

So I wouldn't bet one street hoping he folds those hands but rather plan to either bet multiple streets or give up altogether on the flop.

Your decision comes based on what you think he does and/or population read.


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