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Lay down pocket Aces?

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Sol4r
Joined: 12.02.2011

I pick up AA UTG and raise to 3 BB and because both the MP as well as the BB call, I end up in a multiway pot in the middle.

The flop doesn't look scary, but multiway I want to play very aggressively and make a pot-sized bet.
Both players call, and I am careful now. What can be the hand ranges? I don't have a big sample of their stats.
I am a favorite to pairs that didn't make a set and to broadways with a Jack. There might even be a QT or T8 kind of hand, but I think they're less likely for the MP.

The turn still seems harmless (only 77 or T8 improve), but in a multiway pot with two players who have interest in the pot, my AA have lost some value at the turn, so I decide not to blow up the pot and just try to check down to the river.

At the river a second 9, the BB leashes out with an All In. This is just 2/3 pot size, but there is still the MP behind me.
Do I push, or do I fold?

GG Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 192.7 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 18)
SB: 124 BB (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 19.64, 3Bet Preflop: 16.00, Hands: 58)
BB: 37.5 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (UTG): 200.1 BB
MP: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
CO: 126.3 BB (VPIP: 25.86, PFR: 24.56, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 58)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ A♥

Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 9♠ 5♦ J♥
BB checks, Hero bets 9.5 BB, MP calls 9.5 BB, BB calls 9.5 BB

Turn: (38 BB, 3 players) 7♠
BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks

River: (38 BB, 3 players) 9♣
BB bets 25 BB and is all-in

Spoiler

fold, fold

BB wins 35.2 BB
Rake paid 1.8 BB


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

I would normally Cbet around 40% pot on a pretty dry board and barrel turn as well for value and protection.
Now you get in a situation the short stack has only 25bb left on the turn and I would put him all-in with a 25bb Cbet and fold if the other villain would shove.

As played it's really tough to fold a over pair I think. A 9 shouldn't call a pot size bet on the flop I think, but villain could be a calling station. I would most likely call with in mind if you shove you get only action of better. Is always a small change the other villain would call with a weaker hand if you call. If villain shoves you have a easy escape.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Sol4r
Joined: 12.02.2011

Originally posted by SDK1987
I would normally Cbet around 40% pot on a pretty dry board and barrel turn as well for value and protection.
Now you get in a situation the short stack has only 25bb left on the turn and I would put him all-in with a 25bb Cbet and fold if the other villain would shove.

I think you're right about the bet-size at the flop. That's a real great tip for next time.


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FriskyArt
Joined: 27.10.2009

I like the smaller CBet sizing tip on dry boards like this, that being said, I'm not sure if it's a big mistake to bet large OTF since, especially since the BB has an extremely wide calling range.

The turn is a mistake not to barrel. The board becomes more coordinated and our hand is simply the best hand in most scenarios. The 25 BB that the short stack got left is the perfect bet size to lead with.

But even after our check on the turn I would still not fold my aces on this board only this time we have more of a decsion to make partial because it is still multiway. But heads up we just have too much equity to fold.


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