NL10 - River bluffcatch?

my std here is x/call flop- turn - river if all blank .. and decide if something completes from the price he is betting.
( also donking turn + river if checked back flop )

As played super fine ... no way to fold with this prices we are getting @ all streets.

Flop hits BTN's flatting range and not many hands will fold to a cbet so I guess check/calling is ok otf. As played you can call his check raise but turn is a bit close. Villain bets fairly big after x/r and you don't have even TPTK. On the river we get a good price but what can he really have? He wants us to call and targets Jx hands with so small bet.

I found the flop x/r quite small which led me to believe he was on some kind of a draw and not a made hand as they would want more protection as i could well have flush/straight draws. Was planning on calling any blank turn and blank river unless he shoved river.

Well his flop raise size is 2,5x which is quite standard. I would say he has 66,88,68 some Jx too. You can't put him on a draw only because of his raising size which really was quite big. You haven't told us anything about villain, do you have any info? Do you think he would play his draws so aggressively and then bluff it on the river when no hit? What will 1/4 pot bet accomplish on the river considering we called his flop raise and turn bet?

Nothing better than the old cbet on flop here. A ton of draws to charge.

Originally posted by la55i
Well his flop raise size is 2,5x which is quite standard. I would say he has 66,88,68 some Jx too. You can't put him on a draw only because of his raising size which really was quite big. You haven't told us anything about villain, do you have any info? Do you think he would play his draws so aggressively and then bluff it on the river when no hit? What will 1/4 pot bet accomplish on the river considering we called his flop raise and turn bet?

I think if he has a strong hand he will not bet so small on river. With fh he will want to charge trips.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by la55i
Well his flop raise size is 2,5x which is quite standard. I would say he has 66,88,68 some Jx too. You can't put him on a draw only because of his raising size which really was quite big. You haven't told us anything about villain, do you have any info? Do you think he would play his draws so aggressively and then bluff it on the river when no hit? What will 1/4 pot bet accomplish on the river considering we called his flop raise and turn bet?

I think if he has a strong hand he will not bet so small on river. With fh he will want to charge trips.

You might be right but villain's line looks so strong I think he very often has at least AJ here. I just looked at the results and I was really surprised. If we think this from villains perspective, isn't that river bet really bad?

Nothing bad, he knows he cannot win at SD, so he continues to tell the story. His size gave him up...

Originally posted by la55i
I just looked at the results and I was really surprised. If we think this from villains perspective, isn't that river bet really bad?

River sizing here depends on what hands do we want to target (playing exploitatively that is, otherwise we want to shove as we are very polarized). Such a small sizing in general makes sense only when the opponent won't be folding made hands on the total blank river and we want to fold out draws. In this particular spot the play is horrible because we block most draws with our hand and more importantly we are IP so we just beat the draws when we check behind.

STD play with such wierd sizing at river. Would u call river if he bets 60%?

I will not probably. That is why I am saying that his small bet spoiled the story he was telling.

Villains stats :

name/hands/VPIP/PFR
rfi - EP/MP/CO/BTN/SB
3bet/fld3bet/4bet/fld4bet/sq
Flopcbet/fldFlopCbet/RaiseCbet/TurnCBet/FldCbetTurn/RiverCBet/FoldRiverCBet
BBdef vs SB/BB fold vs SBst/WTSD%/WonSD%

I think he would 3-bet JJ+ on the BTN so i can totally discount that. 66 + 88 are far fewer combos than flush/straight/PairPlusDraw combos especially when the turn hits an 8. I also think he would try to size for a river shove with any value hand, so all these factors make me want to call down.

Most important thing this hand is to take notes (see spoiler) on the BU.

I am folding on the turn (or even on the flop when getting raised). Playing a big pot OOP with TPWK and no draws/drawing slim is not good poker. If he bluffs us out, hats off to him. He is entitled to do that on occasion.

he gave him up with his betting size on turn and especialy on the river where if he bet about 70% of pot he could get away with bluff..this is clear call on river