River decision with top set

• I don't like check-calling. You'd be playing on villains terms. You have to go with his bet size (perhaps forcing you to fold) and he could chose to check back hands that would pay off.
• I hate shoving. Why isolate yourself against the nuts?
• Bet-calling is too enterprising at NL5. Three-barrels are rare. River bluff raises even rarer.

Thus, bet small (50% well enough) and fold to a raise. He is probably not going to bluff raise a busted FD here, but who knows:)

Bet/ fold 60%. Check call is weak, shove is overplay.

I'd go for bet/call here.

1) KQ just got there on the river, but clubs and 98 missed. Top set is still just too strong to be folded there, even if river raise would seem super strong - but because of "missed draws" board, on NL5 he might get crazy with all the sets, two pair combinations and even slowplayed overpairs that we beat. So, we still ahead of this pushing range IMHO.
2) Villain has 99xBB's, so he doesn't have auto-rebuy on. Most likely it a fishy sign and it makes bet/call line even more better (if he started with MSS stack 40xBB - I'm not sure, but I guess, he should leave and start over to play with this strategy).

I don't like bet sizing in this hand though. We play OOP, board is very draw heavy, so 64% of a pot on the flop seems to be way to little, especially in this limit. I would go for 75-80% (0,40$ seems to be quite fine) on the flop and smth about 70-75% (that would go for 0,85) on the turn. We'd like to build the pot while we have nuts, especially when board is such "wet". Especially when we see villain calling the flop.

Nothing wrong with the logic VTomukas. But your arithmetic is off.

At least 20 (KQ + KTs) draws got there. Say at most 10 draws busted (that's already highly optimistic) that can call flop and turn. If he fires all 10, then you have a bet/call. But this assumption is - on average - ridiculously optimistic. Also, he isn't going to raise his slowplays on this board. Well, he might. But just assuming a player raising on the river must be an overly aggressive fish and not one who just hit his draw is a dangerous proposition.

(I'm usually the one claiming that people actually do bluff at the micros - at least once per week. Unusual spot for me?()

It`s absolutely bizarre to fold on that river - bet/call.
@YohanN7 i don`t have a clue what you are talking about. The only draw which got there is KQ.

Originally posted by excitedpoker
It`s absolutely bizarre to fold on that river - bet/call.
@YohanN7 i don`t have a clue what you are talking about. The only draw which got there is KQ.

Oops, misread board, KTs didn't get there. Still 16 combos versus few missed draws. You may be right. I don't know, just doing the math. You will have a bunch of Q8 to bluff-catch with.

What hands will raise the river?

16*KQ + x busted draws. If we bet 50% and he moves in, he'll need to have something like 7 bluff combos for a profitable call. But he might also be raising sets for value, though I think it is strangely played. This might indicate that 50% is a bad size. Either smaller or bigger is better for easier decision. 65% -> now simply don't fold, 40% and we can fold to AI if we want to.

We do not have any info on villain, as so I think that bluff raise on river will be rare.
Fold vs a raise is ok.

He would raise T or 4 on the flop. Check/calling is not good, I think, because we don't know is he betting his busted draws. We should bet to get calls from some pairs/2 pairs which he could have, so I agree with sizing of 1/2. If he raises, he doesn't bluff ever because I don't expect unknowns there to bluff their busted flushdraws. So if he raises, I believe we have to fold.

i would bet like around 2$ and fold to all in.

Pre is close between 3b and flat.

I would say that population on nl2-nl25 are c-betting the flop with KQ 80% of the time or over. You have very easy pot bet on turn and shove on the river.

Originally posted by Zeffke
What should I do at the river?
- Bet/fold 60%psb
- Shove
- Bet/call
- Check/call

Now that's a quality problem. I'd choose between shove and bet/call. If I were to choose one, I'd choose bet/call. Only KQ beats you there, but you could get value from a ton of worse sets, 2p combos, etc.

87 also beats you...

If I'm going to bet/call I rather shove myself no? Negative freeroll?

78 :f_rolleyes::f_rolleyes::f_rolleyes:......... I doubt he doublefloats a gtsht OOP.......!

Originally posted by tukioppilas62
78 :f_rolleyes::f_rolleyes::f_rolleyes:......... I doubt he doublefloats a gtsht OOP.......!

I was just saying...

Sure. Sorry, I'll try to be more constructive in the future.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by tukioppilas62
78 :f_rolleyes::f_rolleyes::f_rolleyes:......... I doubt he doublefloats a gtsht OOP.......!

I was just saying...

Technically he only floats once with the gutshot and picks up a double belly buster so once every century he actually might show 87