SH Rush Overpair vs unknown, facing push on the river

His 91 bb stack makes him look fishy, but 16/13 makes him look reggy.

Vs fish I woulb bet river allin, because should be many Qx which think that its less likely that you have Kx and call. I mean I would not bluff as 3 barrel here on river, because would not expect many folds.

KQ is raising at some point most likely because there are some draws on board and it can get value from AK. So I discount KQ.

So if we have AQ and AK in his range, then should be ok:

if he is fish and has weaker Qx then its even better.

if he slowplays KQ and sets then its bad for us. So it depends probably on how we assume he does with those.

I also fold to this push without info. Probably players are not believing often that they can rep Kx and bluff here.

And btw if he has KQ slowplayed - we still have 37.5 % equity.

We invest 5.51 to win about 18 $ pot assumeing he calls with AQ, AK, KQ, so we need 30% equity, so we should be still doing fine.

Ok, maybe we cannot compare it with bluffing, because when we bluff we need more fold equity - 42 %. Even if we then would expect to fold AQ, its not often enough. So we could not bluff anyway unless we expect him to have weaker range.

Wit what hands do you thinkhe calls the 3B preflop and calls flop and turn too?
On that particular river you can xb and play safe.

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
His 91 bb stack makes him look fishy, but 16/13 makes him look reggy.

Vs fish I woulb bet river allin, because should be many Qx which think that its less likely that you have Kx and call. I mean I would not bluff as 3 barrel here on river, because would not expect many folds.

KQ is raising at some point most likely because there are some draws on board and it can get value from AK. So I discount KQ.

So if we have AQ and AK in his range, then should be ok:

if he is fish and has weaker Qx then its even better.

if he slowplays KQ and sets then its bad for us. So it depends probably on how we assume he does with those.

I also fold to this push without info. Probably players are not believing often that they can rep Kx and bluff here

It is more like this:
MP2 35.29% 35.29% 0.00% AdAh
MP3 64.71% 64.71% 0.00% QQ, 99, AQs+, KQs, AQo+

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
His 91 bb stack makes him look fishy, but 16/13 makes him look reggy.

Vs fish I woulb bet river allin, because should be many Qx which think that its less likely that you have Kx and call. I mean I would not bluff as 3 barrel here on river, because would not expect many folds.

KQ is raising at some point most likely because there are some draws on board and it can get value from AK. So I discount KQ.

So if we have AQ and AK in his range, then should be ok:

if he is fish and has weaker Qx then its even better.

if he slowplays KQ and sets then its bad for us. So it depends probably on how we assume he does with those.

I also fold to this push without info. Probably players are not believing often that they can rep Kx and bluff here

It is more like this:
MP2 35.29% 35.29% 0.00% AdAh
MP3 64.71% 64.71% 0.00% QQ, 99, AQs+, KQs, AQo+

do you by default assume that sets and 2 pair will slowplay till river? Why? Its also interesting - How you yourself would play set and 2 pair in villains shoes?

It all depends on how he thinks about us.

I think checking back this river should be our default play. Not much value here for a bet.

Against a donk here I'd just give up, too many slowplay combos and after river K any Kx beats us.