tough srp spot

The real question is why MP called your raise OTF...or why did he even bet out?:-)
He had so little chance to improve.
For me its a call OTF and a call OTT if he bets out.

Hi, I dont think we have value bet otr. Villain has sets + almost same amount of ax which we beat as those which beats us. I would just cb otr.

Actually maybe he should bet his sets otr, in that case its pretty close imo.

Actually MP-s bet on OTF is OK but calling a raise is not IMO.

disagree with mozzek's range assessment, villain should be shipping at least 99 and his only Ax are Axs 2pair (because we block A:c and calling AK:c seems spewy as fuck to me), and villain has all TT-KK and maybe even other pockets.

however, i feel that we don't really have bluffs here, so seems to me like villain should be folding KK.
my reflex was to bet too but now i'm not entirely sure, maybe bet some dumb amount like 1/4-1/3 pot

God damn, sorry, I completely messed this one, of course, he should be having better Ax hands (with an exception of A9s). I would still say, ppl would call there some sets instead of shipping them, but shipping 99 and lower sets just call seems reasonable. Again sorry, I don´t know what I was thinking yesterday when I wrote my post, worse Ax are pretty out of the question...

nice flop

I'm not completely sure, but why don't we bet the turn? We have "top pair good kicker" and drawing to the nut flush.

We don´t want to bet OTT because now we are likely to be ahead + we have strong draw = we have showdown value. If we bet there we generate too much FE and if we get raised we are screwed. So I like xb there OTT with intention to control the pot.

DO u not like 33-50% bet on turn and check back river?

Theres a lot more to call on the flop we beat ?

Its tought tbh, i dont mind either.

As played i think there is still hands that beat us, villain dont always ship sets on the flop but i feel he would bet river. The fact he didnt bet river makes me feel his range is weak as once he sees villains check turn he should feel villain is weak yet he doesnt bet the river. I would say villain has sd equity and i like a thin bet/fold value bet.

Around $3.10-$4 should get a call, any higher and we fold out the range we want calling i feel.

Rigged

I think you played it well.

Flop: You raise here, not so much as a bluff, but to build the pot if you hit nuts because then you want his entire stack, not a piece of it. (Oh, once a year he has a flush. So what? Then go by odds and outs if he reraises.)

Turn: Now we have a hand that could be best, but will not extract value from many worse hands. A reraise now would be a disaster. Good check.

River: He might look us up with worse the way the hand played. Good value bet.