two pair under distress

Question is what does he cold-call in BB. Does he have AT/T9 and KQ or should he 3-bet those vs a min-raise? We know nothing at all about villain?

With no information about his defending range pre, I have to include AT/T9, KQ and KJ in his x/r range OTT with reasonable frequency and in that case I would bet/fold turn.

If you have information that he often puts KQ/AT/T9 into 3-bet defending range pre, then maybe we can call turn and bluffcatch river because now he only really has one combo of 66 for value and less frequently the straights or better two pair.

Originally posted by LookAwayNow
Question is what does he cold-call in BB. Does he have AT/T9 and KQ or should he 3-bet those vs a min-raise? We know nothing at all about villain?

With no information about his defending range pre, I have to include AT/T9, KQ and KJ in his x/r range OTT with reasonable frequency and in that case I would bet/fold turn.

If you have information that he often puts KQ/AT/T9 into 3-bet defending range pre, then maybe we can call turn and bluffcatch river because now he only really has one combo of 66 for value and less frequently the straights or better two pair.

I don't know anything about them. No. FD misses while some draws improve to S and better two pairs. The frequency of large sized bluffs is low at these stakes too.

OTT is borderline. You might find a fold OTT with so much possibilities.This line is quite a value heavy most of the time. But on the other hand his top range is quite weaken. He almost never have KK, QQ, JJ maybe even AT and KQ witch you block and just 1 combo for 66.

As played you should call OTR. It's a complete brick and changes nothing

What went through my mind was that I want to call so bad because I want to call so bad.

Fantastic analysis! So, lets call!

Jokes aside... I think its pure fold river. He is representing straight there and I dont think you should ever call this without at least set or something like AK/KT with blocker. If he went with bigger raise on turn then you could think about folding there already.

What's the point of calling OTT and folding on a brick river? If we fold it should be OTT

Why do you think that if we call turn then we always need to call on brick even against 2x pot bet?

Originally posted by NapoleonBonaparte135
What's the point of calling OTT and folding on a brick river? If we fold it should be OTT

I like your line and try to go with it best that I can.
But, for the sake of the argument, how different is villain's 80BBs river bet Vs an "expected" 30 to 40 BBs? I mean, could he bet pot with TP and push str8? Or would he bet pot with str8 and push bluffs?
I struggle my fair share with this kind of actions, so would enjoy opinion on it

His size doesnt matter even if it's 10x. OTT hero calls because he believes his hand is good. This river card changes nothing.If we are good OTT we'll be good OTR so we should call. Otherwise it's burning money

Bluffcatching is very sensitive to sizing. On turn you calls with Q6s raise because you believe that you have 28,44% equity(11.92/41.9). Now lets assume you have 35% equity with your hand. On turn its very profitable call. But now brick card lands on river. Opponent shoves 2x pot(like in hand). You call your 35% equity hand and according to math you are losing ~10bb with this call in long run.
Point is - you should call on bricks, but as long as equity is good. Calling whole range we have to 2x pot is absurd unless you have very strong reads.

Okay, on turn, my thoughts are:

1. My hand is still good.
2. My opponent now has a better hand.
3. My opponent is semi bluffing.
4. My opponent is bluffing.

On river, my thoughts are:

I want to call so bad because I want to call so bad.

Does that mean I should call?

No, I actually do not think that I should call. I’m just saying that a fat kid with candy in me wants to call.

vs unknown player, this is probably more of a size dependent decision.

Originally posted by EmiyaKiritsugu
Bluffcatching is very sensitive to sizing. On turn you calls with Q6s raise because you believe that you have 28,44% equity(11.92/41.9). Now lets assume you have 35% equity with your hand. On turn its very profitable call. But now brick card lands on river. Opponent shoves 2x pot(like in hand). You call your 35% equity hand and according to math you are losing ~10bb with this call in long run.
Point is - you should call on bricks, but as long as equity is good. Calling whole range we have to 2x pot is absurd unless you have very strong reads.

It's a mystery to me how do you make such a calculations without information.

1. My hand is still good.
2. My opponent now has a better hand.

You are contradicting yourself. When you remove certain hands out of V's range you cant add them on the later streets. V's range become narower with every street. So if your hand is good OTT it will be OTR

Originally posted by NapoleonBonaparte135

Originally posted by EmiyaKiritsugu
Bluffcatching is very sensitive to sizing. On turn you calls with Q6s raise because you believe that you have 28,44% equity(11.92/41.9). Now lets assume you have 35% equity with your hand. On turn its very profitable call. But now brick card lands on river. Opponent shoves 2x pot(like in hand). You call your 35% equity hand and according to math you are losing ~10bb with this call in long run.
Point is - you should call on bricks, but as long as equity is good. Calling whole range we have to 2x pot is absurd unless you have very strong reads.

It's a mystery to me how do you make such a calculations without information.

1. My hand is still good.
2. My opponent now has a better hand.

You are contradicting yourself. When you remove certain hands out of V's range you cant add them on the later streets. V's range become narower with every street. So if your hand is good OTT it will be OTR

Does your call turn call river strategy work at deeper stack sizes too?

Sure it works perfectly. Wouldnt you want to play against opponent who always call river on blank? Poker dream. You hit, jam 5x pot = profit $$$.

Does your call turn call river strategy work at deeper stack sizes too?

Ofcourse. If i believe that my hand is good or say i dont believe him i am gonna call no matter what he bets. Just think about it. Your hand is good OTT and then all of a sudden is no good on a meaningless river just because your opponent makes 2x overbet. Dont be that nitty. If you are going to fold it should be OTT.

Sure it works perfectly. Wouldnt you want to play against opponent who always call river on blank? Poker dream. You hit, jam 5x pot = profit $$$.

Or vice versa. When i see that my opponent is overfolding way to much on my massive overbets then tore him appart out bluffs and make him talk to himself like crazy

Originally posted by NapoleonBonaparte135

Sure it works perfectly. Wouldnt you want to play against opponent who always call river on blank? Poker dream. You hit, jam 5x pot = profit $$$.

Or vice versa. When i see that my opponent is overfolding way to much on my massive overbets then tore him appart out bluffs and make him talk to himself like crazy

So lets try ONCE AGAIN.
You have 10 combinations of hands in betting range. You have 7 x strong hand and 3 x bluff. Opponent is considering call. Pot is 10bb.

You bet 5bb(50%) - opponent is loses 5bb with 70%[ probability and wins 15 with 30% probability. He wins 1.5bb every time he calls with bluffcatcher.
You bet 7.5bb(75%) - opponent loses 7.5bb with 70% probability and wins 17.5 with 30% probability. He is break even every time he calls with bluffcatcher.
You bet 20bb(200%) - opponent loses 20bb with 70% probability and wins 18 with 30% probability. He loses 8.6bb every time he calls with bluffcatcher.
Its very simple math. Depending on size your bluffcatcher can turn from profitable call into huge money leak.

No matter your calculations if hero believes that his hand is good OTT he should call on a brick river. Because it changes nothing witch means that his hand is still good. I dont know how many times i should repeat myself. Everybody will confirm my words. Every competent poker player. Every coach, every pro. Just ask and you will see.

A standard "ABC" snap call there.

Math is meaningless without data. So i dont see a point to read your comment

Cheers

Ok you are right.

BTW. What is your nick on stars? I hope we can play from time to time. You pick stakes.

We will. And i'll crush you