Is my call correct here? I know my opponent has AAxx here — that’s pretty clear with a 3-bet percentage of 3%. I assume I have about 35%. According to the odds calculator, I need 26%. So, am I calling based on the odds here, or is it still better just to fold on the flop?
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Flop you need to go with this but question is if you should continue preflop though? I would assume it's quite borderline in theory but likely call. Problem is once opponent 4bet range closes to only AA we should get very selective with Axxxds hands.
Well let's check in trainer. So if we check this EV of our hand pre is -12.6bb which is still close to 2bb better than folding. That is not actually even close. Point though is that in solver CO has non AA hand 30% of time here.
But to adjust to fact that this player likely has way more often AA I like to put open raiser in earlier position so that his 4bet range will tighten. So with MP open raise we repeat same spot and now our hand seems to hover around breakeven point between fold and call. This time MP has non AA hand 20% of time.
So let's now make open raiser on EP and repeat. Now our hand show close to 2bb worse result as call compared to fold. Villain is still having non AA hand 15% of time.
If we do same versus EP and no flat caller ranges come actually even tighter. Now call would be over 4bb worse than fold and villain has non AA hand only 3% of time. So now we are practically at point where villain has always AA. Question would then be what Axxxds hand could we still call profitably?
There was only few combos that trainer would 3bet-call like A876ds, A544ds, AJT8ds or AT98ds. Even these were at best winning 0.5bb over folding. So if we are assuming villain practically always has AA then we could just fold every Axxxds combo as simplification. Now when we start to assume villain 4bet range to be less AA heavy we need to continue wider.
But as you pointed out if villain 3bet is only 3% over decent sample then 4bet is extremely likely AA and we should fold. But again on flop we get enough equity vs random AA.
Versus 3bet you can sometimes call wider than trainer would suggest if you assume you have edge over the opponent postflop and potentially villain 3bet wider. But it's important to not get over confident on this way of thinking. In 4bet pot though SPR is so low that it's tough to make big mistake postflop.
No you wanna fold preflop vs 4bet. As played better just shove the flop (you prefer betting yourself when you getting it in anyways with top-pair+gutshot+bdfd)