Read gone wrong

It's mathematically less likely that he has AA now after Bb had AA the hand before

This is not true statemet. The hand before has no effect on the current hand. You could say it's unlikely there is two pocket aces in a row in 3 handed game but that's about it.

But yeah opponent could be on tilit after losing for sure. Calling 4bet doesnt make sense, SPR is less than 1 as you said on flop and your hand isnt't very smooth, it doesn’t flop too good too often. So just fold or 5bet get it in if you feel like gambling against this opponent.

I would just call pre with bad side cards and as default this would be easy fold to 4bet. If we think villain is very out of line with 4bets we can shove pre but as default line we would be burning money.

PS: Also game being 3handed shouldnt really affect our decision that much. I mean its still BU open. Only difference might be rake cap that might be halved. But that should actually make SB call more viable option in general. If I take KKxx (ss combos with no A) SB vs BU from trainer:

For comparison if I take same filter on PLO200 with less rake I would assume to see somewhat more calls (but lets see):

Yeah actually quite a lot more. On plo500 sim it would be 45% call. If we then look versus 4bet KK with no AA in general there is a s***load of folding:

As reminder this is versus solver which does go for lot of 4bets that your non maniac player almost certainly doesnt do.

Originally posted by Padelbro

It's mathematically less likely that he has AA now after Bb had AA the hand before

This is not true statemet. The hand before has no effect on the current hand. You could say it's unlikely there is two pocket aces in a row in 3 handed game but that's about it.

Excuse my ignorance but how is that different from what I wrote? I said it's mathematically less likely that he has AA because it's mathematically less that there's pocket AA in a row 3-handed.

But yeah opponent could be on tilit after losing for sure. Calling 4bet doesnt make sense, SPR is less than 1 as you said on flop and your hand isnt't very smooth, it doesn’t flop too good too often. So just fold or 5bet get it in if you feel like gambling against this opponent.

Yeah I usually GII preflop in these situations but here I wasn't really sure, wasn't paying attention to the table, so I thought calling might be an option.

Interesting. I thought the less players there are the wider ranges become, including 3betting ranges. I think 3-handed 3betting ranges is closer to Hu than 6-max. So by that logic weak KKs become 3bet. Assuming ofc that weak KKs are 3bets Hu, which I'm not sure of

That's a good point about rake shorthanded. Yeah I usually GII preflop in these situations but here I wasn't really sure about villain, wasn't paying attention to the table, so I thought calling might be an option.

It doesnt matter for current hand whatever has happened on previous hands card distribution wise. Maybe easier to think of game like roulette. Next spin has same probability of it being red whatever there has been 2, 5 or 20 times red in row in previous spins. But to say that from this point on next 10 spins will also be red is very unlikely.

For ranges they can become wider if player is mentally thinking of short handed situation requiring wider ranges. But why would it matter if you are BU in 3 handed or 6 handed table? You still have only blinds to play against. Outside of that rake side which might change something gto wise.

Just to check hand like KK53ss EV in trainer if facing 4bet we will get this:

So folding we will lose those 11.5bb we already invested. Calling would lose around 5bb more while shoving would be 12bb more lost compared to folding. Those are enormous differences in single hand. E.g. if these EV assumptions would be correct on average then our EV for 5bet shoving KK53ss would be -1200bb/100 hands.

In general I would say average player has more AA than trainer has which would be detrimental for our EV. We could ask how much of BU 4bet range is AA then in trainer? In plo50 sim BU is 4betting 8.9% versus SB 3bet. AA will always 4bet and AA makes 5.3% of BU opening range. So proportionally its around 60% from 4bet range.

KQT$ds is not really combo that should 4bet so this could be indicator of villain over 4betting. But it could also be his way of overvaluing this kind of combo and he might lack lower ds rundowns that are actually 4betting gto wise.

Originally posted by ghaleon
For ranges they can become wider if player is mentally thinking of short handed situation requiring wider ranges. But why would it matter if you are BU in 3 handed or 6 handed table? You still have only blinds to play against. Outside of that rake side which might change something gto wise.

Well if you're playing 6 handed table there is already 3 players who have folded to BTN, so they didn't have aces or other premium high card hands that would open from those positions making it somewhat more likely remaining three players have these hands - stronger ranges than in 3 handed game?

Well it doesn't mean they could not have Ax or other high cards overall even if they folded. Just that single player probably didn't have bunch of them.