T984ss

I think we need to raise turn despite the likelihood of many bad rivers. After all; we are not always getting called, the river is not always bad, and villain is not always leading river on the bad rivers (either because they're also bad for him or because he is inducing). We have the best hand now and should charge opponent to outdraw us. They're not known good players against whom we need to consider how our range looks etc.

Pre and flop I like.

Otr, it's acually ugly. There aren't many hands that make sense given our blockers and the runout. Quads, ofc. Maybe 66xx. I figure a straight ott would go ahead and get the money in (so I'm not worried about getting bluffed off a chop). Given of all the 2p hands ott villain is most likely to call Kx combos, this river is above averagely bad and I'd find a fold.

If we just call ott I'd find a call otr much more often on this card, because we haven't forced our opponent into having 2p+ ott by raising and getting called. That is he can have way more bluffs because we don't have many great Kxxx when we x/b flop so he may feel we're more capped.

Originally posted by Tim64
If we just call ott I'd find a call otr much more often on this card, because we haven't forced our opponent into having 2p+ ott by raising and getting called. That is he can have way more bluffs because we don't have many great Kxxx when we x/b flop so he may feel we're more capped.

Thanks fo reply

But the thing is, that as you said I cant really have any sensible FH here. So while villain's continuing range ott is for sure stronger, I think he should bluff here always with a missed draw when there is enough behind to generate FE.

OTR I though afterwards that this was a close one what to do. Iam afraid of turn sets and 2prs+draw. While I think Kx are his most likely 2prs hands, KK is now unlikely and I have a T.

Then on the other hand I have clubs too in my hand blocking some of his FD's. But Im not blocking relevant high FD's, any A Q or J, so there certainly is a lot of draws that missed.

Why do you think he can't have full houses? He has KK, TT, 77, 66, KT, K7 and K6 easily in his range.

What would you think is his bet-call range on the turn?

Who thinks what?

Villain of course can have FHs, I cant have them or very few. He has those FHs in his range, but KK and TT combos are blocked by my T and two kings on board. And he doesnt have just any random 2prs combos either, he needs either a flush or straightdraw to go with it to call turn raise.

His bet calling range ott is a mix of FD's, straightdraws, sets and good 2prs.

To me this is an easy fold on the river. You have nuts + redraw, and your logic for many unfavorable river also holds true for villain if he'd have the nuts here too. Most of the time you will just see hte straight get it in here, and not float to bluffdonk river on a pairing board. To me it looks like villain wanting to check raise flop, you check behind, then takes the betting momentum on turn, gets raised. Here I think there are a lot of sets and top2+ in his range, and the river is just the worst with the top card pairing. I would fold and feel good about it, people tend to call a lot of turnraises with sets (aka live equity) hoping to fill up. GL