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[Highlight] Overbet vs capped range - Part 1

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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

PartyPoker
6 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($7.36) 184bb
UTG+1 ($4.44) 111bb
CO Hero ($5) 125bb
BTN ($1.94) 49bb
SB ($5) 125bb
BB ($5.16) 129bb

Pre-Flop: (0.06, 6 players) Hero is CO J♥ 8♥
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, BB calls $0.04

Flop: 10:club: 3♥ 6♠ ($0.18, 2 players)
BB bets $0.09, Hero calls $0.09

Turn: K♠ ($0.36, 2)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: 4♠ ($0.36, 2)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.52, BB calls $0.52

Final Pot: $1.40
Hero shows
J♥ 8♥
BB shows
6♥ 5♥

BB wins $1.33 (net +$0.64)

Hero lost $0.69

Hey guys!

Another hand where we get totally owned =)

The purpose of this hand is to think about

i) recognizing capped ranges
ii) using overbets to exploit this

We will briefly comment on the earlier action also.

Preflop

Reasonably standard open-raise from the CO.

Flop

Our opponent decides to donk-bet here which is generally not a standard line. If we had some reads on his donk-bet stat we might be able to make an exploitative fold here. However we have no reads and reasonable backdoor potential, so calling is likely fine.

Turn

It would certainly be ok to bet vs villains check here. In fact we could likely do this with 100% of our holdings and expect this to be a winning strategy at these limits. That doesn't necessarily mean it's the correct strategy however - we should be checking back some of our floats until the river. While this may not make a large difference to our expectation in isolation it does make us tougher to play against as we move up the limits. If we bet 100% of our air holdings on the turn here we are actually creating a vulnerability in our game. Our opponent can potentially check-raise any two cards if we distribute too much air into our turn betting range.

Keep in mind that checking does not mean we are giving up the hand. We are simply delaying our aggression and fully intend to use our hand as a river bluff unless we pick up some reasonable showdown value.

River

The fact that our opponent proceeds to check again on the river means that he is very unlikely to be strong here. There are two types of hands he will generally be leading in this spot

i) air hands (if he has a propensity to bluff). This is the only way he can win the pot. If he is passive he may opt for check/fold instead
ii) nutted hands. If our opponent did slowplay something on the turn or rivered a monster he would nearly always lead river. He can't really rely on us betting the river since we showed weakness by checking back the turn.

The remaining part of our opponents range is specifically mid-showdown holdings. 2/3rds pot bluff may be ineffective here since he may snap us with his bluffcatchers. Overbetting on the other hand has the potential to fold out his entire range. Many players do not have a good bluffing range in this spot since they bet all of their air hands on the turn and check back turn primarily with showdown value. So the hand also illustrates a second reason why it is not theoretically correct to bet all of our air range on the turn despite it likely being a clearly +EV line at these limits.

Opponent calls with a pair of 6's. We don't really want to give him credit for an advanced thought process here. The most likely reason he called is because he is a station. The expected value of overbet bluffing drops dramatically vs this opponent and we should take a note on this. Naturally the expected value of overbetting for value goes up, since he is potentially not capable of folding any weak bluffcatcher.


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1 reply
GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

Here I agree that on river 75% size would be inefficient. Still, after checking twice, villain is mostly giving up, and having some weak bluff catchers, some Tx which will call. It is much better spot for overbet than part2 overbet hand, still I would rather bet small, to target his air hands that fold anyway, because hero checked turn behind (big mistake in this spot having total air). So if hero would be betting turn, then I find river bluff overbet great, since villain after calling turn will have mostly Tx in his range.

If i would have to check some hands to be more vulnerable on turn, I would rather check some A high draws, or pair + draw, some A highs, GS, than total air hands. Anyway, even at NL100 zoom, or party poker NL100, you cant see often reg who defends good his check ranges, so I think that checking turn for the sake of being less exploitable is going to burn EV.


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