[Highlight] Overbet vs capped range Part 2

Hey weasel,

Interesting thoughts. I'm not sure I like the OB on R though.

Our OB implies we usu. have 2p+ here. Since we didn't raise a drawy F our value range to rep on R is pretty low right?
We have more draws in our range and the only draw which completed is 98 whilst a ton missed.

Id rather bet normal (like how much Id bet w KQ?) and make it look value-ish and fold out some of his middle strength hands. His air folds out either way. He shouldnt have too many Qxs; I usu. expect weaker Qx to xb F and start betting on T.
An OB kinda makes it look more bluffy here? I wouldn't be surprised if I get called by A6

You did say that lower limits have more category1 players so its an exploitative line we take here, which I can agree w.
But on part 1 of this, we didn't use an exploitative line right? ("In fact we could likely do this with 100% of our holdings and expect this to be a winning strategy at these limits. That doesn't necessarily mean it's the correct strategy however - we should be checking back some of our floats until the river.")

So assuming we are trying to have a less vulnerable gameplay here, I'm not convinced w the R OB here.

Maybe you can point out where I'm missing the point

I also dont like overbet in this spot at all. In fact, I think it is one of the most wrong spots to overbet as bluff
reasons:
1) only one street was bet, hero doesnt have initiative preflop, so he can rep less value combos and more busted floats
2) most important, the mayority of villians range is total air, and AJ, AK. We dont need to overbet, to fold those. It is enough to bet like 40% pot, especially at lower limits, where villains dont like bluff catching A high, likely 25% pot achives much more than enough FE. If he slowplayed some Qx, JJ, he is very unlikely to fold anyway. This is especially true for NL4, where people dont see much difference between overbet 1.3x and 75% pot.

In general, I would use overbet as bluff vs range which has majority of weak top pairs, mid pairs, which are not folding vs standard sizes, but would fold vs overbet (if he is right player category). On this river, villian has mayority of air hands in his range, and very few or maybe none of pairs. Thats why I would bet smaller, like 33% pot. If the range is full of strong hands, or pair+draws, I would overbet only for value (e.g. 6s 8s 9c Kc). Since I think this spot is very wrong for overbet, I also think that spots which are even more wrong are:

1) hero cbets flop, checks behind turn, overbet river
2) hero cbets flop, checks OOP turn and villain checks turn, overbet river
3) hero checks back flop OOP or IP, and bet turn overbet river

so all spots where villain can discount many of our value hands. Off course, there are villains that would realize, oh this is not good spot for bluff overbet, so he is likely value heavy, and i will fold, but those are in practice very rare. I would do that only at NL100 and higher, where there are more thinking regs like that, and it is good to bluff in spots which are considered to be bad bluff spots.

In general, overbet as bluff is not going to print money at NL4, people dont like folding pairs, as regs fold in e.g. NL50. I am not sure if you ever looked at overbet success at NL4, I looked, have a friend playing exactly at NL4 party poker, and it is only around 50% success. I play at NL50 and NL100 zoom, and it is 85% success on river at nL50, and 70% at NL100 (decent sample). So at nl4 I would just overbet for value on turn and river, and on turn especially when there are many pair+draws possible.

Basically if villain has mainly air on river then small bet is clearly better. So it comes down to villain's tendencies a little. If he has enough Qx, JJ, Tx then overbetting is great imo.

Also we don't want to start thinking too much about what we rep. There is a very specific reason why I listed the player types here. Player type 1 doesn't even care what we rep. Vs player type 2 we need to start thinking about what we rep.

Vs player type 3 where we play a balanced game we actually /want/ to overbet when we rep a narrower value range compared to the possible air hands we can have. In other words if we are air-heavy overbetting actually correct. Small sizing on the river actually means we can't bluff as much. I'm surprised at the lines on that list since I routinely use 1) + 2) to good effect. Repping nothing/narrow can be a good thing, it's confusing. We just need to know who to bluff against and who to value-bet against.

Basically if villain has mainly air on river then small bet is clearly better. So it comes down to villain's tendencies a little. If he has enough Qx, JJ, Tx then overbetting is great imo.

sure if somebody is full of weak showdown hands, and overfolds vs overbets but not vs standard bet sizes, then clearly overbet is the best. I think that it makes more sense to analyse vs average reg, fish, nit at the current limit, because if we exactly know range and frequencies from villain (as you listed 3 player types and what range they have), then it is all trivial. In reality we rarely know exactly how much villain folds vs overbets, since the sample is nearly always insufficient vs specific villain, especially if we would look for specific actions or board type. We could know if villain overfolds if e.g. we saw him calling vs overbets too light, or if he all the time just folds vs our overbet (extreme cases), so in that case it is again trivial.

"I'm surprised at the lines on that list since I routinely use 1) + 2) to good effect."
1 year ago overbet used to work for me for whatever line, whatever I rep, it was perceived as value heavy at nl100 zoom. Lately, when the pot is not big (usually after only 1 bet and check), regs light bluff catch. Still, nobody likes bluff catching light vs e.g. 200+ bb deep overbets (e.g. in 3bet pots).
It could be that because many regs nowadays buy HH, they see using notecaddy that my overbets are bluff heavy, so they bluff catch light, even though they never saw me bluffing as overbet (I usually mark regs who bluff catch me light).

I'm sure that's in most of the basic strategy guides these days. If you see a guy named GingerKid and he overbets then don't fold.

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