Hey guys,
Again, thread title courtesy of pokerstrategy.com ♦
So you've probably heard it said that in the majority of cases TPGK is not worth 3 streets of value. You'd be right. In fact even TPTK is not worth 3 streets of value vs the majority of opponents on the majority of board runouts. So let's look at an exception where the board runs out favourably and we can use hand-reading techniques to extract that extra street of value with a TPGK hand. Hand is below, check it out then find my comments below.
$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
iPoker4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
Stacks:
CO Hero ($5.30) 106bb
BTN ($5.43) 109bb
SB ($7.34) 147bb
BB BB ($5.38) 108bb
Pre-Flop: (0.07, 4 players) Hero is CO Q♠ K♥
Hero raises to $0.12, 2 folds, BB calls $0.07
Flop: K♦ 2♦ 3♣ ($0.26, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.18, BB calls $0.18
Turn: 10:club: ($0.62, 2)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.43, BB calls $0.43
River: 6♥ ($1.48, 2)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.74, BB calls $0.74
Final Pot: $2.96
BB shows
K♣ 9♣
Hero shows
Q♠ K♥
Hero wins $2.77 (net +$1.30)
BB lost $1.52
Preflop - So we make a standard open from CO. 2.4x with KQo. First useful thing to note (will be relevant on the river) is that villain doesn't 3bet. We don't have a huge sample on him so far, but his current 3bet is 9.1% over 35 hands. We should be able to discount AK reasonably well since even readless, the majority of players are 3betting.
Flop - We value bet flop on the larger side, a little larger than standard. Remember that we don't need to balance our sizings at the lower limits and this is a useful technique for simply extracting additional value.
Turn - Tc makes the turn a little more drawy. It's a standard pot to keep value-betting. The important thing to take note of here is that villain doesn't check/raise. He probably has 22/33/KT all in his preflop range. He may even have K2/K3 also. But even if these hands slowplay the flop they will usually be check/raising on the turn and we can discount them. So we should be able to see that we are a clear favourite vs his range, and will continue to be a favourite if the river card does not change much.
River - 6h comes on the river. This is essentially a blank. It does complete 4 combos of 45s, but remember that 2 of these are monster draws and may x/r the turn. His range at this stage looks like some busted flush-draws and a whole bunch of one pair hands, predominantly Kx. If he's a thinking player he's probably also aware that the 6 didn't improve my range and I still have busted draws, especially with the double flush available on the turn.
Either way, worse Kx hands should be a pretty easy fold for villain at these limits if he knows what he is doing, but weaker players have a hard time folding top pair. We know he probably doesn't have AK and should be able to extract value from weaker Kx with a half pot bet.
