Hey guys,
Pretty simple auto-profit hand in this example. We discussed the genearal concept in the latest Academy live coaching. Essentially if our opponent checks back the flop at lower limits we have a profitable 2 barrel on turn and river in the majority of cases.
$0.02/$0.05Zoom No Limit Holdem
PokerStars6 Players
Stacks:
UTG ($7.73) 155bb
UTG+1 ($8.09) 162bb
CO ($2.86) 57bb
BTN ($6.84) 137bb
SB Hero ($5.02) 100bb
BB ($11.99) 240bb
Pre-Flop: (0.07, 6 players) Hero is SB 7♦ J♦
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.48, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.33
Flop: 8♥ 2♥ 3♠ ($1.01, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
Turn: 4♠ ($1.01, 2)
Hero bets $0.54, BTN calls $0.54
River: 9♣ ($2.09, 2)
Hero bets $1.44, BTN folds
Final Pot: $3.53
Hero wins $3.44 (net +$0.98)
BTN lost $1.02
Preflop - Seems fine imo, but probably slightly outside a standard range from the SB.
Flop - We totally miss the flop here and I don't see any reason to get involved with fancy-play-syndrome at these limits. The plan is to check fold.
Turn - Turn is a blank and this is where we decide to spring to life. This is likely not a correct bet in theory since we don't really have much potential. Even if we had something as weak as a gutshot it could easily end up being a correct bet, but with 7♦ J♦ it's probably correct to check/fold.
However we aren't too concerned with what is correct in theory. Let's consider our opponents flop range for a minute. It's really not that likely he has any over-pair otherwise he'd frequently bet vs our missed cbet at these limits. It's not overly likely he has any pair since he'd probably bet for protection assuming we mostly have overcards. This means our opponent likely does not hold any pair and his most likely holding is simply two overcards to the board.
It should not be difficult to get our opponent to fold two overcards by the river. He may float us once on the turn but can't call twice. He may also have picked up a flush draw on the turn or checked back a flush-draw on the flop. Again he can only call once with these hands, but not twice unless he hits.
River - We stick with our plan and decide to 2-barrel. Obviously no bluff works with 100% frequency but this should work frequently enough that we generate automatic profit. It seems a reasonable river card also. It doesn't connect with his overcards but is still an overcard to the board which may give us a little additional fold-equity if he did decide to check back with something like 55 on the flop.
