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Teach me sensai - why do we have so much equity here

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mucho69
Joined: 06.08.2007

Heya, so I already play a long time, but never really bothered with theory, because I am an arrogant fish who hasn't played for years, and always thought he doesn't need it.

So now I am trying a different approach. Below you can see a standard scenario. Me 3bet, villain called. No matter if I cbet flop or not, I can't find out where the equity is coming from.

The only hand we're beating right now is KQ. If we get an A we only beat QQ, KJ, QJ. If we hit a K we only beat KQ, QQ, AJ. In case of Q we beat everything. That's 10 outs in best case, which is absolutely unlikely.

So, why do we have so much equity? I can't see us winning nearly half the pot if we play this scenario multiple times.

I see I completely forgot about AQ..


Board: J♦4♥T♣ 7♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    48.73%  41.36%   7.38% { AhKs }
MP3    51.27%  43.89%   7.38% { QQ-TT, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AJo+, KQo }


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Originally posted by mucho69
The only hand we're beating right now is KQ. If we get an A we only beat QQ, KJ, QJ. If we hit a K we only beat KQ, QQ, AJ. In case of Q we beat everything. That's 10 outs in best case, which is absolutely unlikely.

So, why do we have so much equity? I can't see us winning nearly half the pot if we play this scenario multiple times.

I see I completely forgot about AQ..


Board: J♦4♥T♣ 7♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    48.73%  41.36%   7.38% { AhKs }
MP3    51.27%  43.89%   7.38% { QQ-TT, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AJo+, KQo }

There is the AQ you mentioned, and the river outs account for a lot of the rest.
River outs are Ax, Qx, Kx -- many of which give you a tie.

but you're right -- it is surprisingly close.
In Equilab, instead of "Evaluate all" choose "Monte Carlo" and let it run through 300 million hands or so.

You also have the nut flush blocker, which reduces opponents heart outs -- but that is very slight.

Cheers,
VS

I see no reason why my run should be any different than yours.


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